Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f24487b1a816678b51d9671ac11164274e57e1194e678ddcb8c864575212069
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 61c | 2,414$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470 | 167 | 95.8%160 W · 7 L | +62.3wins | +0.37per pick | 58cpaid | +95.3%equal weight | 86+0.32 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 18c | 1,461$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,198.02 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked No | 61c | 409.82$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +5.4wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b9…0a8bbacked Yes | 17c | 356.67$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.04 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 4c | 230.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 205.14$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.36 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked Yes | 42c | 199.7$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.18 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 41c | 192.33$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.78 | 2,236 | 58.1%1,300 W · 936 L | +83.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 41c | 186.74$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.56 | 2,304 | 27%622 W · 1,682 L | -41.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 171.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 22c | 171.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.86 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb2…a30cbacked No | 18c | 164.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 78c | 159.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.79 | 1,083 | 65.6%710 W · 373 L | -16.5wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 41c | 153$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.14 | 2,260 | 58.3%1,318 W · 942 L | +85.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…3ef1backed Yes | 68c | 145.61$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.42 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 134.52$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.88 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 130.94$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.84 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…8ca0backed Yes | 69c | 130$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 49c | 124.93$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.86 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 39c | 115.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.38 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…522dbacked Yes | 63c | 115.18$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 73c | 112.36$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.02 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 40c | 102.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.54 | 2,211 | 55.9%1,236 W · 975 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 46c | 81.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.96 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 45c | 81.22$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 39c | 76.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.83 | 1,412 | 65.3%922 W · 490 L | +60.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 26c | 74.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 1,124 | 55.4%623 W · 501 L | -29.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 20c | 69.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.14 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 67.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 66.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 41c | 60.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 521 | 43.6%227 W · 294 L | +30.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 58.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 79c | 58.31$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 79c | 56.22$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 75c | 54.51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 21c | 51.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 2,265 | 39.6%896 W · 1,369 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed Yes | 31c | 45.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 80c | 45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…cc2cbacked Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 68 | 94.1%64 W · 4 L | +12.7wins | +0.19per pick | 75cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 27c | 37.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 45c | 33.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 221 | 48.4%107 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 77c | 31.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 62c | 27.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 2,252 | 56.6%1,275 W · 977 L | +64.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3,821 | 61.1%2,336 W · 1,485 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 53c | 20.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 2,273 | 59.3%1,347 W · 926 L | +118.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 78c | 19.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 5,161 | 68.3%3,525 W · 1,636 L | +71.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 15.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 3,111 | 61.7%1,921 W · 1,190 L | -31.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 77c | 14.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C or higher on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.