Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x006ee9195f3940af9d27678fd9a9513e2c276e52e09fb98013c37fc71aeca83b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x25e3…ab76backed Yes | 0c | 11,170$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…55e4backed No | 48c | 1,657$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.84 | 48 | 87.5%42 W · 6 L | +12.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +49%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 34c | 869.46$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.45 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed No | 79c | 859.03$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.39 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 27c | 468.83$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.46 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…bd59backed No | 76c | 322.18$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.26 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 74c | 269.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Yes | 34c | 219$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.46 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +12.2wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x725b…f2e9backed No | 46c | 217.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…aac7backed No | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.99 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 15c | 188.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.72 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 36c | 179.95$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.34 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 79c | 170.69$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 170.05$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 16c | 149.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…befcbacked Yes | 38c | 142.91$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked No | 35c | 141.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.89 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 22c | 141.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 21c | 119.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.32 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f8…9a41backed Yes | 79c | 90$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe98b…626abacked Yes | 55c | 67.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 23c | 62.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe45…fd22backed No | 23c | 62.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.05 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…3b47backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0c…dd26backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 35c | 47.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 74c | 45.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 26c | 45.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed Yes | 53c | 44.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 44.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b9…0a8bbacked Yes | 34c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed No | 67c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 47c | 41.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed Yes | 41c | 41.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 58c | 39.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked Yes | 76c | 37.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed Yes | 49c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa318…ccb3backed No | 68c | 36.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 69c | 33.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…008abacked No | 68c | 33.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29da…f41ebacked Yes | 31c | 32.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -76%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 63c | 32.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed Yes | 68c | 25.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 72c | 24.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 79c | 23.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 63c | 20.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 75c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 60c | 19.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x393e…b2f0backed No | 66c | 18.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 71c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25e9…adbcbacked No | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 79c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked No | 78c | 14.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C or higher on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.