Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7be71e979f19d73be265e23185039bb9a5661573e5265a1c75fb2f483133b46e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 42c | 414$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.88 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 67c | 266.55$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.64 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 42c | 251.13$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.47 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +12.2wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 9c | 187.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked No | 27c | 175.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa539…1e87backed Yes | 31c | 127.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.47 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc7…dda1backed Yes | 30c | 120$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.54 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +6.9wins | +0.38per pick | 51cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb33e…28c3backed Yes | 30c | 120$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.36 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +4.5wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…b951backed Yes | 46c | 120$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.44 | 49 | 83.7%41 W · 8 L | +13.2wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9d…e9f4backed Yes | 30c | 120$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.51 | 33 | 90.9%30 W · 3 L | +10.4wins | +0.32per pick | 59cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xbda2…97ebbacked Yes | 58c | 120$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +5.3wins | +0.33per pick | 61cpaid | +48%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d1…d203backed Yes | 34c | 119.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.67 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 35c | 113.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.19 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3da9…13dfbacked Yes | 48c | 104.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.47 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 72c | 103.33$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 25c | 94.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 39c | 86.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 71c | 78.38$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 52c | 78.22$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 18c | 70.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.39 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 67.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 17c | 66.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 76c | 66.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 29c | 60.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 24c | 60.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 59 | 93.2%55 W · 4 L | +21.7wins | +0.37per pick | 56cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4a…a5a5backed Yes | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 35 | 94.3%33 W · 2 L | +13.8wins | +0.40per pick | 55cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…fd75backed Yes | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb9…1879backed Yes | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 43 | 93%40 W · 3 L | +14.6wins | +0.34per pick | 59cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x25e3…ab76backed No | 34c | 52.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 24c | 51.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.44 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0c…dd26backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 33c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 30c | 44.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 72c | 40.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcebe…0720backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 36c | 29.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 72c | 29.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 71c | 28.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 57c | 27.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 47c | 25.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 70c | 23.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 71c | 21.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 67c | 19.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed Yes | 72c | 15.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C or higher on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.