Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebb47a16a10fad3404de21f99a43f7d1f62e86078f2de09b8abb43464bcbdf76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,046
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,046 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 1c | 2,475$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 17c | 576.05$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 76c | 476.76$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.24 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 352.13$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 21c | 299.59$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.25 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 25c | 272.56$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.53 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 26c | 261.6$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.34 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 252.51$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.65 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 17c | 249.21$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.89 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 79c | 183.03$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.3 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 142.72$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.79 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 11c | 140.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b9…0a8bbacked No | 44c | 132$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 9c | 125$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 15c | 124.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.01 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed Yes | 50c | 122.49$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.19 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 49c | 121.43$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.19 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 22c | 116.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 16c | 107.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 11c | 101.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 30c | 99.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 54c | 99.09$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 19c | 97.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.86 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 17c | 96.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.2 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 95.7$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 30c | 90.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.45 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 27c | 89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 85.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked Yes | 23c | 82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.14 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 53c | 81.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 51c | 79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 77c | 71.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 78c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 59c | 65.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 63.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 76c | 63.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 80c | 63.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 22c | 58.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 74c | 53.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 21c | 53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 75c | 47.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 25c | 47.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 28c | 43.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 56c | 41.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 41.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 50 | 82%41 W · 9 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 65cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 74c | 36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 72c | 33.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 32.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63bd…aff2backed Yes | 73c | 30.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a1…a26bbacked No | 76c | 28.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 52c | 25.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 74c | 23.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 72c | 22.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 78c | 20.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 75c | 19.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 57c | 19.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 78c | 17.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 16.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcae4…e479backed No | 74c | 15.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked No | 76c | 14.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27a5…8d62backed No | 73c | 13.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…dd79backed No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…7a24backed No | 76c | 13.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.