Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc71990ef7f3deb53cbc00aa812b7035ce0fbffd7a50d21d7846f08d4a5b88cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 66c | 454.2$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.2 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 7c | 399.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 28c | 347.4$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.53 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 75c | 324.08$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.45 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 75c | 232.38$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.54 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 29c | 219.23$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.21 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 33c | 201.51$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 17c | 186.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 37c | 182.45$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.06 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 23c | 173.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 67c | 138.56$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 121.5$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 33c | 110$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 11c | 92.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 78c | 90$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 23c | 86.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 28c | 84.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 53c | 83.26$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 80.83$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 75c | 67.93$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 24c | 66.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 35c | 66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 19c | 60.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…b8c4backed Yes | 25c | 56.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 31c | 55.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 55.02$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 67c | 52.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa74…78b9backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f79…af92backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 28c | 49.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 68c | 49.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 22c | 48.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 46.59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a5…95cfbacked Yes | 29c | 37.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 30c | 36.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed Yes | 36c | 33.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 34c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x404a…559ebacked No | 66c | 32.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 70c | 30.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…a960backed No | 65c | 30.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 71c | 29.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 67c | 28.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…c974backed No | 58c | 24.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 72c | 22.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 18.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849b…0543backed No | 67c | 17.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 77c | 16.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 16.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 16.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 77c | 15.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.