AI · resolved market
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30b65086ddbd0849b1a42e582fa953035fd10cdfeb223a002f0a7e2ecce59780
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $335,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $354,116
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $335,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 279 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x808f…b31abacked No | 0c | 15,686$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa06e…f56fbacked No | 0c | 13,424$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2838…758cbacked No | 0c | 12,919$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe798…5365backed No | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa340…cac0backed No | 0c | 9,459$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f99…abc7backed No | 2c | 9,362$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3251…26dbbacked No | 1c | 7,883$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…5dfebacked Yes | 49c | 7,605$3,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,842.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd28…96d8backed No | 2c | 6,467$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 1c | 5,675$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2598…40a3backed Yes | 58c | 5,618$3,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,345.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed Yes | 44c | 5,213$2,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,930.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc28d…1773backed No | 12c | 5,115$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.94 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Yes | 25c | 3,715$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,783.94 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 33cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ea…b02abacked No | 0c | 3,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf191…09f6backed Yes | 51c | 3,398$1,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,649.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 75c | 3,067$2,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.89 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7706…5b5bbacked No | 2c | 3,045$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d3…aebdbacked No | 2c | 3,036$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4abe…37b7backed Yes | 52c | 2,854$1,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,367.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +59%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96f7…d6aebacked No | 24c | 2,287$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x577a…6c80backed Yes | 40c | 2,226$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 47c | 2,134$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.59 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 69c | 2,022$1,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.3 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 50c | 1,832$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.57 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…aeecbacked No | 1c | 1,719$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 26c | 1,573$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.26 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaf…8031backed No | 18c | 1,568$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +154.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…c234backed No | 41c | 1,553$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.25 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 37cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbbba…d60fbacked No | 13c | 1,509$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.04 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 46c | 1,492$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b19…3ee1backed Yes | 11c | 1,473$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,307.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +787.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x413f…2a15backed No | 3c | 1,335$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17c4…48cabacked No | 2c | 1,312$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…d06fbacked No | 1c | 1,300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 78c | 1,300$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…2adcbacked No | 6c | 1,223$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad43…b681backed Yes | 42c | 1,193$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bed…7574backed No | 17c | 1,124$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 11c | 1,098$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.3 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…33a1backed Yes | 18c | 1,090$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +247.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x310e…5050backed No | 46c | 1,043$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed No | 5c | 1,039$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa794…42adbacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 64c | 970.21$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.39 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0578…e1fbbacked No | 17c | 885.65$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.69 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…00bcbacked Yes | 32c | 875.26$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.44 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 18cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 46c | 874.85$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.9 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67fa…1a08backed No | 17c | 860.9$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.29 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf382…be0ebacked No | 10c | 821.27$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.87 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95dc…5576backed No | 2c | 799.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked No | 67c | 792.07$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.15 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 5c | 772.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +8.4wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 14c | 741.3$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.29 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3217…7d40backed No | 12c | 703.18$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f93…3300backed No | 72c | 696.21$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 65c | 662.69$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.53 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa981…82b8backed No | 78c | 654.9$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc42…c354backed No | 23c | 653.6$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e29…a4a0backed No | 48c | 648.53$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.81 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f7…570ebacked No | 19c | 645.16$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…05e4backed Yes | 14c | 638.67$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.51 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +228.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb705…0183backed No | 5c | 619.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…a75ebacked No | 20c | 570.67$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 8c | 543.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.99 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 15c | 525.54$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.83 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 72c | 524.61$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.55 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6a…20e5backed No | 11c | 521.18$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…e2eebacked No | 49c | 509.32$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 4c | 499.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa66c…554ebacked Yes | 20c | 486.28$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +403%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6725…1bf9backed Yes | 44c | 474.51$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.51 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 3c | 464$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed Yes | 15c | 452.47$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed Yes | 16c | 445.28$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.04 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b0…7398backed No | 23c | 433.8$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…e80ebacked No | 75c | 414.56$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…4246backed Yes | 67c | 411.65$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.39 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a1…aac4backed No | 18c | 410.45$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed Yes | 53c | 399.98$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.19 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 68c | 373.77$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.08 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 40c | 373.5$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.82 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 79c | 363$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.51 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…f2ddbacked No | 78c | 362$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 46c | 349.93$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.56 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 41c | 344.82$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.38 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 52c | 336$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.28 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…0b8bbacked No | 20c | 310.36$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +77%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 45c | 307.46$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.39 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e8…64b9backed No | 15c | 304.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed Yes | 18c | 304.06$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.57 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42d0…cbc5backed No | 65c | 302.56$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca16…f878backed No | 74c | 300$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +4.9wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…303abacked Yes | 16c | 292.05$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +532.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3054…1282backed No | 70c | 285.6$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes | 21c | 284.95$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.42 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…a6efbacked No | 23c | 280$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d2…cc86backed No | 20c | 280$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 38c | 276.03$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.49 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?this page
- Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.