MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10a21bdd96e929dcf68e0bc4f2e0ebe9bd7ce494f81b11713413fdc9ae67a75d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 78c | 7,865$6,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,691.31 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 5,645$2,821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,821.41 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9f…a024backed Under | 15c | 5,604$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…15eebacked Under | 15c | 5,300$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 43c | 3,078$1,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,766.1 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b9…0a8bbacked Under | 1c | 2,001$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Over | 55c | 1,221$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.99 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Under | 46c | 1,170$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.2 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…4d8bbacked Over | 55c | 1,140$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.08 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 69c | 1,104$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.46 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 55c | 1,091$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.91 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Under | 46c | 869.57$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 28c | 793.23$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.61 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 45c | 741.98$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.89 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 55c | 612$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.12 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Over | 55c | 600$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Under | 29c | 517$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.93 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 45c | 510.37$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.67 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Over | 53c | 477$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.19 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 47c | 450$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.5 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 19c | 405.13$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.02 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Under | 30c | 334.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.25 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 45c | 281$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.45 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 69c | 238$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.22 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b22…9431backed Over | 55c | 226$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.7 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 19c | 217.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 55c | 194.55$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.55 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 41c | 143.89$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.9 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 55c | 132$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 45c | 129.83$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Over | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 55c | 119.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 53c | 116.82$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.91 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Over | 43c | 116.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 37c | 102.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.7 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 45c | 99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 55c | 96.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Under | 45c | 86.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 46c | 73.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 45c | 64.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Under | 66c | 50.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Under | 66c | 50.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 45c | 48.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 47c | 46.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Under | 66c | 46.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Over | 39c | 39.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…1002backed Under | 46c | 32.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 73c | 31.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Over | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…faadbacked Under | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Under | 51c | 23.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…8620backed Over | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 320 | 54.1%173 W · 147 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e33…8732backed Over | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -84%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 55c | 20.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31a0…5911backed Under | 73c | 17.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston AstrosMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.