MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b7873e0495d85ed21fb6c8debf7a09f79bbc8f61af601ad676f6f81679a7a81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $779
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef54…c997backed Yes | 54c | 155$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.7 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 47c | 135$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.55 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Yes | 52c | 130$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 47c | 113$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.89 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9375…5a37backed Yes | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 48c | 79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5777…f1a7backed No | 47c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f6…bab8backed Yes | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 139 | 51.8%72 W · 67 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 45c | 23.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…400bbacked Yes | 53c | 22.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astrosthis page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston AstrosMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Houston Astros won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.