MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd92b3989a35d1f3f78891a94e3bc7e81a636c03d78834a75cbe52c6852cfdfb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Houston Astros, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,482
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,482 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Twins | 65c | 4,917$3,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,734.74 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros | 35c | 4,574$1,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600.57 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Houston Astros | 38c | 3,191$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,212.72 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros | 34c | 2,928$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.25 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 2,419$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.22 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 1,813$1,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.94 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Minnesota Twins | 63c | 773.53$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.94 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Houston Astros | 38c | 679.12$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.07 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Houston Astros | 39c | 647.46$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Minnesota Twins | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.4 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Houston Astros | 35c | 460$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Minnesota Twins | 62c | 315.79$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 294.25$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.76 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 294$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.72 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Minnesota Twins | 61c | 196.15$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Houston Astros | 38c | 174.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Houston Astros | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 112.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…4551backed Minnesota Twins | 63c | 106.67$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Houston Astros | 18c | 102.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 101.46$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…5639backed Minnesota Twins | 63c | 89.59$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 206 | 54.4%112 W · 94 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Houston Astros | 38c | 68.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 62.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Houston Astros | 39c | 60.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Houston Astros | 37c | 59.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Houston Astros | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Minnesota Twins | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…d790backed Houston Astros | 38c | 46.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 34.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Houston Astros | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Minnesota Twins | 62c | 26.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 25.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a8…df77backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Minnesota Twins | 62c | 22.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 21.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Minnesota Twins | 66c | 18.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 16.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston AstrosMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.