TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

China Taiwan · resolved market

Will Jared Kushner attend Trump’s Xi summit?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$69,490
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$58,838

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,490 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xddb1…ea72backed Yes67c8,074$5,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,390.131233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-35.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98a7…df9ebacked Yes6c7,059$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e3d…6143backed Yes70c5,564$3,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,882.351233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-42.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc96e…f1f9backed No57c3,002$1,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,305.432100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed No28c2,990$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,157.03475%3 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick27cpaid+218.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b8f…2c14backed No16c1,906$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,599.761330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick18cpaid+30.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x797f…aa36backed No28c1,626$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,165.21742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick24cpaid+97.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes1c1,400$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4345.9%2 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+100.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes1c1,060$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x421b…01dabacked Yes1c1,039$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3706…9462backed No67c1,019$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.31250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2637…26e1backed No54c1,001$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf71…1548backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6d2…7048backed No18c852.92$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+127.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c742.03$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.45563.6%2 W · 54 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes4c729.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.43568.9%5 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+92.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes2c699.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9464.3%2 W · 44 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1359…0c0dbacked No20c674.68$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.94450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+79.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c568.4$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.271277.9%10 W · 117 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed No62c529$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.34887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick60cpaid+43.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a89…a4d6backed No54c489.61$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.61540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-31.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes36c431.63$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.444723.4%11 W · 36 L+0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes36c422$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.922128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-50.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7a0d…ff14backed No29c404.84$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.82100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+144.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed No72c401.32$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.541471.4%10 W · 4 L+4.0wins+0.29per pick43cpaid+70.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed No70c400$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1211233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-25.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0b0…a5fbbacked Yes14c400$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5630%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed No19c376.37$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.05520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick11cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5df7…780dbacked No45c370.04$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.19933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick21cpaid-33.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed No14c354.8$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.81353.8%7 W · 6 L+4.2wins+0.32per pick22cpaid+108.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked No25c301.62$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.922642.3%11 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdffc…32e1backed No69c269.71$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.422100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No62c244.28$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.161369.2%9 W · 4 L+4.7wins+0.36per pick33cpaid+387.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x23d7…0f30backed No67c232.41$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.05366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb37a…f1b1backed No69c203.28$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.331266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.6wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+166.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes25c200$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+35.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca16…f878backed No17c199.98$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.984100%4 W · 0 L+2.8wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+312.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No71c170.69$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.51741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x938e…d242backed No58c169.33$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.64666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+31.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe5dc…35f9backed No66c157.99$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.14475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes16c149.64$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.51520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-60%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No53c144.55$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.742445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fa3…86e8backed No69c141.63$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5254…891bbacked No22c139.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.25425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid+16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed No20c138.25$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.11633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.21per pick13cpaid+43.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7006…cf78backed No75c132.99$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-55.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xecd7…c7e1backed No59c120$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.65475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+21.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x027c…b158backed Yes46c120$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.66520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x671a…b8f1backed Yes65c118.65$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.12540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8df9…468cbacked No15c112.95$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.95366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+163.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe397…bfcbbacked No14c100$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86850%4 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+76.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6be4…dcbbbacked No28c100$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick61cpaid+4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda08…0e21backed No14c100$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86475%3 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.56per pick19cpaid+288.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf1ff…5b03backed No68c99.99$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.8wins+0.29per pick48cpaid+79.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7d85…3a04backed No70c99.57$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.24742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick21cpaid+27.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x39bd…18f3backed No58c99.13$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc678…6f57backed No79c88.61$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.612100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes54c86.45$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.992524%6 W · 19 L-4.0wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-58.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd011…e928backed No51c78.03$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b5e…adaabacked No29c69.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.21633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6b9…0a8bbacked Yes28c68.76$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x789a…1ddabacked No76c58.96$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf20…3b9ebacked No76c55.54$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08bf…df57backed No21c52$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+374.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5711…5853backed No67c52$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.93450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e63…b61cbacked No48c50.91$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+109.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x288b…0c3ebacked No69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-31.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No56c48.32$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.421833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d81…fe57backed No73c48.13$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.24785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.38per pick47cpaid+82.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0c35…2babbacked No72c43.79$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.04580%4 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick40cpaid+95.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x465a…d8d4backed No66c41.56$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.13366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+63.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No55c39.81$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.95875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c14…6342backed No32c36.94$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.94425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac76…9359backed No78c35$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+36.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x693c…a7edbacked No60c35$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5bd…f03ebacked No58c34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.28650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7373…7701backed No65c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.63366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes53c22.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.09366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Yes74c22.49$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.721154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick60cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dec…cefabacked No79c20.05$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.21683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.37per pick46cpaid+75%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf88b…0ed2backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e50…11cdbacked No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cb1…e80cbacked No79c18.89$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.892100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd230…f600backed No68c18.81$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.