China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Steve Witkoff attend Trump’s Xi summit?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3661cb06e73e9b8867d6a1adb7271741eb56cb38cb06a10b158bba74f1b8ae6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xddb1…ea72backed Yes | 70c | 4,422$3,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,077.32 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 46c | 1,442$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.81 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3d…6143backed Yes | 45c | 1,353$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.85 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbff…e8e7backed No | 79c | 1,066$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…01dabacked Yes | 1c | 1,042$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe74b…ee88backed No | 20c | 749.38$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 27cpaid | +218.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed No | 74c | 632.03$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +127.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 62c | 473.93$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.51 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed No | 64c | 469.06$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.06 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc93f…445dbacked No | 15c | 447.28$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 13cpaid | +275.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…0c0dbacked No | 46c | 431.31$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca16…f878backed No | 20c | 400$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.02 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +312.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x890e…8084backed No | 76c | 400$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 36c | 328.86$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.47 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96e…f1f9backed No | 70c | 308.69$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 30c | 301.2$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.36 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 13c | 291.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked No | 25c | 260$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed No | 17c | 232.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.87 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac6a…2ed3backed No | 42c | 228.41$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.16 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 20c | 214.93$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.01 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +4.7wins | +0.36per pick | 33cpaid | +387.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 192$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed No | 71c | 173.49$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.97 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +166.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…a4d6backed No | 64c | 156.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 27c | 153.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d5…9925backed No | 15c | 151.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c7e1backed No | 52c | 140$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed No | 70c | 138.29$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.29per pick | 48cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed No | 24c | 123.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…e125backed No | 13c | 116.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.49 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23d7…0f30backed No | 73c | 110.05$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05df…882dbacked No | 75c | 99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 72c | 60.09$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 27c | 50.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x771a…6be6backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 68c | 42.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be4…dcbbbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…a387backed Yes | 75c | 38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 66c | 28.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc678…6f57backed No | 74c | 27.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdffc…32e1backed No | 75c | 19.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc01…a3b6backed No | 74c | 17.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Steve Witkoff attend Trump’s Xi summit?this page
- Will Elon Musk attend Trump’s Xi summit?Yes won
- Will J.D. Vance attend Trump’s Xi summit?No won
- Will Jared Kushner attend Trump’s Xi summit?No won
- Will Marco Rubio attend Trump’s Xi summit?Yes won
- Will Mark Zuckerberg attend Trump’s Xi summit?No won
- Will Melania Trump attend Trump’s Xi summit?No won
- Will Scott Bessent attend Trump’s Xi summit?Yes won
- Will Tim Cook attend Trump’s Xi summit?Yes won
- Will any of Trump’s sons attend Trump’s Xi summit?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.