China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Melania Trump attend Trump’s Xi summit?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa472e81bc668edd0b1587e0fcf16f14cbe35e9021d38b806a1d0a7147c73cbfd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc9f…29ebbacked Yes | 0c | 11,689$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…5fbdbacked Yes | 3c | 5,062$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.67 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed No | 25c | 1,353$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +215.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 52c | 1,300$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,200$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.32 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed Yes | 5c | 991.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…306fbacked Yes | 2c | 728.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed Yes | 2c | 696.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 2cpaid | +506.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…01dabacked Yes | 3c | 640.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 632.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +562.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 5c | 315.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d59…6452backed Yes | 7c | 166.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…be4dbacked Yes | 53c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 66c | 16.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Melania Trump attend Trump’s Xi summit?this page
- Will Elon Musk attend Trump’s Xi summit?Yes won
- Will J.D. Vance attend Trump’s Xi summit?No won
- Will Jared Kushner attend Trump’s Xi summit?No won
- Will Marco Rubio attend Trump’s Xi summit?Yes won
- Will Mark Zuckerberg attend Trump’s Xi summit?No won
- Will Scott Bessent attend Trump’s Xi summit?Yes won
- Will Steve Witkoff attend Trump’s Xi summit?No won
- Will Tim Cook attend Trump’s Xi summit?Yes won
- Will any of Trump’s sons attend Trump’s Xi summit?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.