China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Marco Rubio attend Trump’s Xi summit?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ff3f888226c00744e47aa49f2ec48c36b2551db6ae2830cdd833b9c38ff9659
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,367
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,676
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,367 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c3c…5eeabacked No | 7c | 2,025$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…8dbbbacked No | 2c | 1,676$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f1…1395backed No | 6c | 741.42$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c70…f74dbacked No | 2c | 657.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 3c | 639.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 37 | 0%0 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a3…24eabacked No | 3c | 621.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 3c | 611.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc5…4626backed No | 2c | 600$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 400$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca4…37a1backed No | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…5053backed No | 15c | 143.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24b9…f36ebacked No | 15c | 106.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d5…9925backed Yes | 77c | 18.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Marco Rubio attend Trump’s Xi summit?this page
- Will Elon Musk attend Trump’s Xi summit?Yes won
- Will J.D. Vance attend Trump’s Xi summit?No won
- Will Jared Kushner attend Trump’s Xi summit?No won
- Will Mark Zuckerberg attend Trump’s Xi summit?No won
- Will Melania Trump attend Trump’s Xi summit?No won
- Will Scott Bessent attend Trump’s Xi summit?Yes won
- Will Steve Witkoff attend Trump’s Xi summit?No won
- Will Tim Cook attend Trump’s Xi summit?Yes won
- Will any of Trump’s sons attend Trump’s Xi summit?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.