Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d577e49228f6d6e9d411ce642adaf36e20bbf7f51d0c3813d7c44f1642042fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 75c | 824.57$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.4 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 6c | 290.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.71 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 272.27$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b9…0a8bbacked No | 11c | 272$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 65c | 236.11$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.78 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 212.82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…76a5backed No | 45c | 202.34$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.54 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 24c | 192.55$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.09 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 173.37$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.74 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 142$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.05 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 23c | 141.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.31 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 28c | 129.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.65 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 65c | 128.3$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.5 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 16c | 115.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.43 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda2…97ebbacked Yes | 68c | 93.97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +5.3wins | +0.33per pick | 61cpaid | +48%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 22c | 84.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.06 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 42c | 73.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 34c | 66.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked Yes | 69c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 49 | 91.8%45 W · 4 L | +18.2wins | +0.37per pick | 55cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 77+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa539…1e87backed Yes | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…fd75backed Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc7…dda1backed Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +6.9wins | +0.38per pick | 51cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…b951backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 49 | 83.7%41 W · 8 L | +13.2wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 27c | 53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 36c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 38c | 42.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 39c | 42.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 41.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 35c | 40.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 73c | 39.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 77c | 39.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 37.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 30c | 36.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked Yes | 37c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 40c | 34.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 38c | 32.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 72c | 27.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 72c | 26.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 60c | 23.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 22.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked No | 78c | 22.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 69c | 22.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 69c | 21.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 76c | 18.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 71c | 16.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbf…002fbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +19.9wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +424.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 78c | 14.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 80c | 13.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…a7f9backed No | 79c | 12.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C or higher on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.