Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5710b4fb6b0c7bd1a7c18a8d3ff378286bcf2d14c34dcabb4bedc515bd02e965
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 0c | 3,181$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 60c | 646.71$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.21 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 27c | 329.24$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb33e…28c3backed No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.24 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +4.5wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 288.07$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.11 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 21c | 272.74$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.98 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 22c | 266.12$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.07 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes | 56c | 265.81$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…7d4bbacked Yes | 65c | 156.86$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 31c | 124.39$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.39 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb5…3253backed Yes | 44c | 119.89$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.88 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 61c | 117.62$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.1 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 43c | 108.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 42c | 99.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 48c | 89.56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 62c | 87.08$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 49c | 86.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 18c | 79.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa73a…27d9backed Yes | 62c | 78.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 77.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 45c | 69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 56c | 59.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 39c | 56.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 54c | 55.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…cf2dbacked Yes | 41c | 54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 40cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a00…5ffcbacked Yes | 68c | 53.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 30c | 51.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 48.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…77dbbacked Yes | 34c | 47.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 62c | 47.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 37c | 46.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.43 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 36c | 45.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 43c | 44.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 58c | 42.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 54c | 42.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88c7…febcbacked No | 58c | 40.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 67c | 38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 57c | 36.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 58c | 34.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed Yes | 47c | 31.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 42c | 28.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed Yes | 49c | 28.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked Yes | 63c | 27.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 56c | 26.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…cab6backed Yes | 64c | 26.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked No | 70c | 26.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d8…ccf3backed Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 44c | 24.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 64c | 23.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed0…25afbacked Yes | 69c | 21.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Yes | 68c | 20.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4d…e466backed Yes | 70c | 18.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 61c | 16.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…ef46backed Yes | 78c | 15.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on May 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C or higher on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.