Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6852698665c7fe5ea1d538588d7fb715f6f03a67b1ae4334123b7a20a639743
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,010
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 49c | 1,139$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.22 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 8c | 1,135$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 50c | 791.05$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.99 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked Yes | 14c | 709.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.57 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 37c | 580.84$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.31 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 46c | 330.03$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.11 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 71c | 316.87$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.98 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 280.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 268.35$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.87 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 11c | 236.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.27 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 10c | 226.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.5 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 33c | 226$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.81 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +12.2wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 71c | 224.86$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.13 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 219$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.69 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 39c | 215.01$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.54 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9752…62bebacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 29c | 197.77$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.93 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 162.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked Yes | 13c | 152.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.87 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 150$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b9…0a8bbacked No | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 31c | 146.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.23 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 145.97$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 143$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.74 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 48c | 125.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 20c | 115.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fba…e196backed Yes | 23c | 107.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.61 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 13c | 100.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.57 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 100.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1925…b15dbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 96.8$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.86 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 64c | 92.81$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…f36fbacked Yes | 13c | 83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.83 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +95.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…cc2cbacked No | 64c | 80$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 68 | 94.1%64 W · 4 L | +12.7wins | +0.19per pick | 75cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 36c | 77.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 20c | 72.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.44 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…b5bebacked No | 70c | 72.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 70.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 44c | 68.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 65c | 64.55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0480…3a9abacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +214.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes | 56c | 60.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 20c | 60.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd0…9192backed No | 50c | 51.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 79c | 45.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39da…5318backed No | 45c | 44.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 32c | 43.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 79c | 38.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97a3…a3fabacked Yes | 27c | 37.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed No | 61c | 37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 36.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 40c | 31.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 36c | 31.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 69c | 30.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7130…5387backed Yes | 50c | 30.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 57cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 78c | 29.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 25.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.