TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$39,274
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,449

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,274 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x85df…fb48backed Yes5c4,557$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.754234.9%189 W · 353 L-30.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes2c2,924$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.481389.4%13 W · 125 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick2cpaid+357.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7f1c…55e4backed No53c2,246$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,046.184887.5%42 W · 6 L+12.0wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+49%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes10c2,089$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.624,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xde0f…a4e7backed Yes3c980.41$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.027231.9%23 W · 49 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+66.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes39c860.7$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.7589544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes78c824.99$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.4792028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x738e…cc2cbacked Yes52c479.99$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.086894.1%64 W · 4 L+12.7wins+0.19per pick75cpaid+25.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x800e…691bbacked Yes43c415.59$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.58887.5%7 W · 1 L+3.6wins+0.45per pick42cpaid+115%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes5c384.12$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.172,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes25c308.51$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.484,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes5c298.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.052,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes29c281.45$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.0710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No49c258$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.644,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad64…c614backed Yes58c240$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.41492.9%13 W · 1 L+3.9wins+0.28per pick65cpaid+46.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No48c233.66$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.145,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No72c219$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.555,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes8c210.03$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.876,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8023…cfd4backed No74c206.09$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.057338.4%28 W · 45 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+63.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes33c195.22$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.762,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No73c189.92$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.283,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed Yes40c187$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.996943.5%30 W · 39 L+12.2wins+0.18per pick26cpaid+201.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes36c167.73$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.17,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes68c150$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.782,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7211…6734backed Yes23c136.18$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.324744.7%21 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73d0…6972backed No75c133.38$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3822959.8%137 W · 92 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes25c133.28$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3249551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x91d8…2a3ebacked Yes25c120$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301513.3%2 W · 13 L-3.8wins-0.26per pick39cpaid-64.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No79c111.8$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4892678.2%724 W · 202 L+51.2wins+0.06per pick73cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No75c109.36$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.552,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No35c107.35$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.7812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77ba…9ed8backed No75c101.01$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.28333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-55.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes24c93.31$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3918814.4%27 W · 161 L-14.7wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-14.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No50c91.32$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.3312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes18c83.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc62d…5577backed No63c80.06$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3325038%95 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07d6…64fbbacked No77c78.02$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9421068.6%144 W · 66 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf695…0045backed Yes31c74.77$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.032516%4 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-69.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes21c73.39$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7587437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes24c71.01$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.772,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked No72c64.56$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.354547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No63c61$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.523,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes21c59.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.734,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed Yes27c53$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.121,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb84c…f36fbacked Yes21c52.77$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.281926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick17cpaid+95.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes27c52.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1858358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…9044backed Yes28c51.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.788920.2%18 W · 71 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes27c51.4$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.889,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a0a…8f66backed Yes37c49.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.51747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80cc…4c27backed Yes37c48.62$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.991952.6%10 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3d8…8f53backed No67c44.85$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.855172.5%37 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No67c44.76$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.799962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes25c43.76$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.855,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No24c43.22$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.0161752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b82…b217backed Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.214134.8%49 W · 92 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2779…62dfbacked Yes27c39.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7525119.9%50 W · 201 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No75c39.04$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9275546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf5f…30edbacked No60c33.31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No73c30.82$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.329,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No77c30.78$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.011,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No67c29.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.971,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No74c25.7$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.793,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd425…603ebacked No80c24.84$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.979272.8%67 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick74cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes66c22.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.111,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2930…3666backed No73c22$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.945162.7%32 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No68c21.94$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.021,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4264…1706backed Yes75c20.8$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.640871.8%293 W · 115 L-0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.62,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.688650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc528…a153backed Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.62,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No79c19.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.082,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ff…df5abacked No59c19.03$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.841250%6 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No78c18.98$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.111,31376.1%999 W · 314 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No63c17.21$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.371,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes61c17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.386,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No60c16.8$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7266944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf15b…8c10backed No77c14.91$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.369366.7%62 W · 31 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa51…6199backed No75c13.61$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.4262275.2%468 W · 154 L+15.5wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.