Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e5c4e6206bb967bb3c2133328fe5578fb899a67ae25ffc79b111c88af54f3cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,777
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,777 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 33c | 752.62$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.45 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 15c | 392.08$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.36 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 211.08$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.49 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…b9e8backed Yes | 21c | 201$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7211…6734backed Yes | 8c | 192.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 18c | 187.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf695…0045backed Yes | 21c | 165.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 164.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 65c | 138.36$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.89 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 66c | 120$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 73c | 112.36$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 80c | 109.36$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…9044backed Yes | 14c | 104.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 31c | 97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 20c | 96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 88.74$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 71c | 87.52$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 16c | 72.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 72.48$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 70.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41e…17debacked Yes | 29c | 69.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 27c | 58.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 52.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…c83fbacked No | 77c | 52.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 47.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 63c | 47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 74c | 43.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed No | 63c | 42.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 36.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 35.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 63c | 30.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 72c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 75c | 26.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 71c | 21.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 73c | 20.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 74c | 18.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 72c | 16.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 70c | 14.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 73c | 13.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.