TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7130…5387

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
50
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Weather, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 59 out of 100; worst Lol at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT1136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$77
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+33.1%+$5.35
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$158.68
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.51
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+141.6%+$189.96
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+224.6%+$72.01
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$25.82
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.73
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.99
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.45
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
All 11 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 8, 2026, EDT988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.32per pick57cpaid+57.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
Weather — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on July 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+81.6%+$24.99
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on July 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$9
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+61%+$7.32
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on June 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+47.7%+$18.06
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+100.4%+$22.73
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$23.59
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.04
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+102%+$15.3
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+72.5%+$65.72
All 9 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT5100%5 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+104.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+96%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
MLB — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$13.19
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$118.04
Spread: Knicks (-8.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$8.78
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.09
All 4 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-66.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Lol — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$41.48
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.41
All 2 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$21.89
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+83.4%+$126.72
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$7.48
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+38.8%+$4.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Wimbledon WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Karolina Muchovabacked Naomi Osaka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.51
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.