Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ffe8187138e18f5a9acc85f26a2e55a057603f231b835349bf89f2482dca54b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,514
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,514 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 16c | 1,854$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.65 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 77c | 1,171$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.39 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 4c | 573.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 70c | 378.07$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.9 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked No | 67c | 330.75$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.79 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 3c | 325.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 6c | 301.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 14c | 298.52$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 71c | 279.94$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.94 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 273.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 270.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 14c | 262.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 9c | 261.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 68c | 256.78$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.41 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05ac…6d71backed Yes | 64c | 242.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.34 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb90b…ca12backed Yes | 21c | 230.15$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 54c | 219.77$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.76 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 8c | 215.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 35c | 215$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 31c | 210.68$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.51 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 22c | 193.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 76c | 167.19$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 167.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7130…5387backed No | 58c | 156.39$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.72 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 57cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 144.81$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 24c | 141$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 125.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 10c | 119.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 29c | 114.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 110.74$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.76 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked No | 78c | 108.96$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 27c | 103.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…b04abacked No | 73c | 101.28$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 11c | 101.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…be1dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 82 | 18.3%15 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 59c | 94.42$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 62c | 85.51$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 26c | 71.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 77c | 67.35$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 75c | 66.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2162…929ebacked No | 79c | 63.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1853…6c81backed Yes | 33c | 61.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 41c | 60.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…14ccbacked Yes | 18c | 58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…1beabacked Yes | 73c | 45.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602c…5f57backed Yes | 71c | 42.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…7d50backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 30c | 38.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 38.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 64c | 37.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 57c | 33.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 38c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 55c | 28.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 39c | 27.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 66c | 27.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 62c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 71c | 26.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…517ebacked Yes | 45c | 25.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 73c | 25.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 70c | 23.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 63c | 23.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 76c | 13.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.