Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69cc3888aecaa3302d969992dfd45fc79d45ac8fe1ea74c011423af8ac6e1ec2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 56c | 706.64$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.89 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 79c | 361.86$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.44 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 326.4$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.07 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 321.12$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 70c | 249.49$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.04 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ac…6d71backed No | 61c | 239.87$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.51 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 36c | 219.3$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.3 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 50c | 218$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.64 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 208$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.31 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb90b…ca12backed Yes | 66c | 198.53$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.39 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 43c | 146.05$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.76 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 46c | 145.06$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.18 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 45c | 145.03$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.98 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 47c | 139.58$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.96 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 133.07$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 132.66$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.89 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 39c | 129.59$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.8 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 50c | 128$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 49c | 124.66$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.08 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 40c | 123.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.62 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 47c | 119.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.34 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 55c | 115$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 45c | 110$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 64c | 110$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 40c | 106.8$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.73 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 55c | 102.21$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.49 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…3661backed Yes | 64c | 98.26$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes | 40c | 91.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 52c | 90.03$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 53c | 88.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 36c | 84.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 42c | 82.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.26 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 36c | 81.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.33 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 44c | 78.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 47c | 74.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 44c | 67.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 66.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 39c | 65.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22d9…ee63backed Yes | 47c | 64.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 49c | 62.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 67c | 61.01$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 56c | 60.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…d0f6backed Yes | 66c | 60.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 60.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 55c | 53.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…2e40backed Yes | 47c | 52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 49c | 52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 55c | 52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 36c | 52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 56c | 50.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b0…56e8backed Yes | 66c | 49.88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 49c | 49.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 34c | 48.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked Yes | 30c | 48.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 47.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34bb…db52backed No | 60c | 46.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 49c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 55c | 45.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 28c | 44.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 46c | 44.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 58c | 43.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 35c | 43.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 54c | 41.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 48c | 40.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe117…b4e7backed No | 63c | 40.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…b0aebacked No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d9…ee1ebacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…7107backed Yes | 63c | 39.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…186cbacked Yes | 50c | 39.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 39.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 36c | 38.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2722…2ebebacked Yes | 65c | 38.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 60c | 36.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 64c | 34.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 41c | 31.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…acacbacked No | 50c | 30.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x177b…6e61backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee2b…a97abacked Yes | 47c | 29.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +4.3wins | +0.33per pick | 52cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 67c | 29.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…7d50backed Yes | 43c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 48c | 28.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 39c | 27.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb5…0200backed No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 49c | 25.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…4e2dbacked Yes | 48c | 25.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 56c | 24.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 41c | 24.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked Yes | 50c | 24.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 46c | 22.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 54c | 22.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.