Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa70fa4ef19b21106f54760cfb6fa5acd1674f51f5c6b25895f0e4a838ba2322e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes | 27c | 756.3$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.98 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 35c | 366.82$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.98 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 326.4$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.78 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 24c | 250.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 38c | 241$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.58 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 239.26$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…e19cbacked No | 79c | 174.65$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 106 | 17.9%19 W · 87 L | -10.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 7c | 160$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34bb…db52backed No | 60c | 140.83$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.83 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 139.75$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 75c | 132.18$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 129.64$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.65 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 31c | 128.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 25c | 124.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 23c | 121.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 113.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…a5d4backed Yes | 37c | 105.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 102$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 101.81$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.31 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 65c | 96.71$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 41c | 92.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 63c | 91.72$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 82$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…7451backed Yes | 39c | 77.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc06d…6732backed Yes | 28c | 76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f59…9e40backed Yes | 23c | 74.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 69.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 15c | 68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 40c | 56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 18c | 56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 40c | 53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 52.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…7217backed Yes | 26c | 49.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 42c | 47.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 59c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 40c | 41.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3642…c2f0backed No | 72c | 41.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 40c | 41.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 36c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fe…818ebacked Yes | 35c | 39.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 64c | 39.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…3661backed Yes | 42c | 37.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 33c | 37.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 37.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 64c | 37.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 68c | 36.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 79c | 35.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 62c | 34.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 58c | 34.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 64c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked Yes | 40c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 79c | 32.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca69…7153backed No | 64c | 30.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf7…c5b7backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x177b…6e61backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe466…7db5backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +5.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb5…0200backed No | 63c | 23.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…eea9backed No | 64c | 21.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 63c | 19.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 67c | 16.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 76c | 14.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 71c | 14.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.