Commodities · resolved market
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1577b32b4beeca98844e2e227b5c23e4c41ece8a6df1ee2d0e3219e9366a9ae4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7eaa…fd24backed No | 78c | 6,395$4,971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,423.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,194$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 19c | 5,000$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 9c | 3,790$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.97 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a3…24eabacked Yes | 4c | 3,545$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 3,065$2,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.63 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 47c | 2,976$1,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,402.33 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +272.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 21c | 2,380$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.54 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 13c | 2,055$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.02 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 22c | 1,623$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.42 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 66c | 1,553$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.23 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 5c | 1,530$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.37 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,230$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.11 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 63c | 1,049$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.87 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 69c | 1,041$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.1 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 58c | 978.34$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.1 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 9c | 968.55$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.56 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 3c | 885.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 15c | 806.04$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.57 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 710.38$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.51 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 65c | 699.14$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.14 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb36c…1077backed Yes | 65c | 657.81$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.75 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.5wins | -0.41per pick | 50cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 53c | 575$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.75 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 547.71$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.45 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed No | 25c | 531$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.25 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 462.5$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.95 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a2…630bbacked Yes | 7c | 445$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd6…10d4backed No | 62c | 400$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…4546backed No | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…9be4backed No | 59c | 399.98$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.99 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 58cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 22c | 391$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.31 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…8354backed Yes | 14c | 350$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked Yes | 64c | 349.99$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.5 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5195…44ebbacked Yes | 58c | 345$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03d3…2014backed Yes | 67c | 328.06$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 321.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 301$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.91 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes | 34c | 297.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +9.7wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 31c | 286.41$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.4 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2a…b7b5backed Yes | 60c | 275.28$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.05 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dde…d725backed Yes | 14c | 272.04$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 9c | 240.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 48c | 209.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.15 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…9411backed No | 49c | 201.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.63 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd30d…acd8backed Yes | 75c | 200.19$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4194…9809backed Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 59c | 180$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 17c | 178.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46c8…5894backed Yes | 30c | 167.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd46…4c7dbacked Yes | 34c | 160$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 46c | 160$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…70a4backed Yes | 44c | 157.43$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.43 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Yes | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6da…3699backed Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…eba3backed Yes | 56c | 142$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.88 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…162cbacked Yes | 14c | 134.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +127.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 55c | 132$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 34c | 131.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 60c | 117.58$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.38 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 70c | 113.66$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No | 66c | 111$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 71c | 109.9$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 61c | 108$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 20c | 102.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36d6…e94bbacked Yes | 39c | 102$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f3…c13cbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…540cbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cee…5ff8backed Yes | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 36c | 84.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +526.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 66c | 82.13$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed No | 62c | 77.13$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 67c | 76.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x82cd…d7d8backed Yes | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 34c | 65.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7f…6413backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1946…6367backed No | 45c | 59.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 39c | 59.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -14.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 51c | 57.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 39c | 55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bf4cbacked Yes | 61c | 54.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 51c | 54.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5a…aa7abacked No | 30c | 52.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3f…bc25backed Yes | 69c | 51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b3…bad4backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 67c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f0…b245backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…8d83backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 16cpaid | +174.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?this page
- Will there be 80 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?No won
- Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?Yes won
- Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?No won
- Will there be between 60 and 80 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.