Commodities · resolved market
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb1c9b9a77915609b021d6a80d849e70a7a7a3794b8ba6fdb5d6f00f9cc019b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $132,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $129,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d37…f007backed Yes | 23c | 7,488$1,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,743.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +329.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35e…abbbbacked Yes | 26c | 7,002$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,201.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +288.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5752…8139backed Yes | 24c | 5,778$1,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,398.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +318.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6009…32acbacked Yes | 26c | 5,291$1,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,894.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +279%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 40c | 4,000$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,589.62 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 60c | 3,836$2,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,293.76 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…2f60backed Yes | 39c | 3,832$1,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,346.22 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…8c1cbacked No | 8c | 3,647$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 41c | 3,498$1,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,448.58 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 19c | 2,962$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400.82 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 7c | 2,353$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.95 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…9411backed Yes | 40c | 2,063$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230.39 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a3…24eabacked No | 17c | 1,760$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.58 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…4546backed Yes | 12c | 1,700$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,496 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 41c | 1,563$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.04 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa9…2bfcbacked Yes | 50c | 1,519$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…74abbacked Yes | 24c | 1,507$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,146.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +318.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 1,440$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.6 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada0…8e34backed Yes | 45c | 1,351$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 6c | 1,345$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,258.81 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +240.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 11c | 1,292$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.38 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 27c | 1,257$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.18 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked No | 3c | 1,186$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c6…bb70backed Yes | 52c | 1,174$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 43c | 1,105$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.43 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…517dbacked Yes | 67c | 1,098$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.28 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 10c | 1,059$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.14 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 25cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 37c | 996.25$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.75 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 66c | 913.37$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5acd…08d7backed Yes | 32c | 874.32$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 49c | 798.76$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.75 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 46c | 712.7$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.7 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 79c | 689.82$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.99 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed Yes | 9c | 660.37$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.2 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 31c | 598$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.26 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 20c | 552.85$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.41 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 20c | 534.73$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.55 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 2c | 532.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +120.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47a…2f05backed Yes | 49c | 527.09$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 10c | 500$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.31 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 80c | 500$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.28 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd6…10d4backed Yes | 54c | 499.99$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.54 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb36c…1077backed No | 74c | 450$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.75 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.5wins | -0.41per pick | 50cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 27c | 436.38$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.49 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 59c | 430.11$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.95 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 60c | 403$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.53 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed No | 5c | 397.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc073…7c59backed Yes | 16c | 395.46$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +308%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked No | 5c | 395$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b0…a817backed Yes | 22c | 387.34$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.78 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 35c | 387.08$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.65 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 42c | 361.28$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.28 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 12c | 346.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5195…44ebbacked Yes | 16c | 345$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 301$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.68 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…af18backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.03 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +6.4wins | +0.42per pick | 44cpaid | +169.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 54c | 300$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.33 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d7…6f40backed Yes | 7c | 299.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 41c | 282.47$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.57 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes | 12c | 277.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.01 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +9.7wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 31c | 276.31$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.64 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 38c | 275.67$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.83 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2a…b7b5backed Yes | 41c | 271.8$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.98 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…162cbacked Yes | 14c | 258.69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.91 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 78c | 255.56$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 23c | 255.38$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 14c | 240.54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.82 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 24c | 231.75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 11c | 228$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb0…bd65backed No | 70c | 220.54$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…649fbacked Yes | 21c | 201.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.74 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5a…aa7abacked Yes | 21c | 200.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 72c | 200$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 71c | 200$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed No | 78c | 199.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3096…58a3backed Yes | 38c | 191$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.03 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33b…17d4backed Yes | 44c | 180.18$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.18 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 50c | 179.61$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.89 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…eba3backed Yes | 16c | 177.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.06 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…525fbacked No | 63c | 159.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.31 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 57c | 143.36$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.05 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 65c | 138.08$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.2 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 56c | 131.21$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14d5…8ba8backed Yes | 24c | 121.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.92 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 23c | 120.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.52 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb51…1a2cbacked Yes | 22c | 111.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.06 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +120.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 42c | 105.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.32per pick | 43cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53f8…5ce0backed Yes | 68c | 104.9$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3387…c3f7backed Yes | 65c | 104.36$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0777…4b7fbacked No | 20c | 102.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 67c | 100.06$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…7fb5backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f3…c13cbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d71…08a9backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +120.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd47f…6532backed Yes | 43c | 90.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +133.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed Yes | 63c | 87.25$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 46c | 78.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed Yes | 22c | 76.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 48c | 74.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?this page
- Will there be 80 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?No won
- Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?No won
- Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?No won
- Will there be between 60 and 80 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.