Commodities · resolved market
Will there be between 60 and 80 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64c297d4f5ef4e305e95aadaa1d51483c839cb9c12e5da2205c09056c2aa0f80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,928
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,928 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 2c | 5,902$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.99 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a3…24eabacked Yes | 1c | 4,680$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,747$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,597$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 1,438$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 7c | 784.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 6c | 665.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 7c | 448.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +526.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 3c | 403$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5195…44ebbacked Yes | 5c | 345$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…540cbacked Yes | 13c | 250$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +9.7wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 17c | 105$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 12c | 98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be between 60 and 80 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?this page
- Will there be 80 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?No won
- Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?Yes won
- Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?No won
- Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.