Commodities · resolved market
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e398184e4f4a4e7e6c202abd2a5d4d4af73df4a36d1bc1b1ba501dd11e5baec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 8c | 18,036$1,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,443.76 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 7c | 8,860$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.72 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed Yes | 6c | 4,878$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.69 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a3…24eabacked Yes | 1c | 3,873$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 20c | 1,782$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.67 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +272.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,013$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb36c…1077backed Yes | 38c | 1,003$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.5wins | -0.41per pick | 50cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 13c | 893.44$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.79 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 2c | 886.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 2c | 544.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 528.65$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.54 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 13c | 510.64$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 8c | 503.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 14c | 449.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x17a2…630bbacked Yes | 3c | 445$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 12c | 403$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5195…44ebbacked Yes | 21c | 345$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 336.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5a…aa7abacked Yes | 9c | 310.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 301$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.13 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…4546backed No | 50c | 291.65$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.83 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 74c | 278$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.16 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x929d…7ee3backed Yes | 17c | 251.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +180.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…540cbacked Yes | 23c | 249.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 19c | 243.84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…2f60backed No | 51c | 237.79$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.02 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…70a4backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 15c | 199.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 62c | 198.7$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 182.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 80c | 177.91$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes | 30c | 177.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.42 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +9.7wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa33b…17d4backed Yes | 8c | 143.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 30c | 133$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No | 70c | 123.58$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 75c | 120.5$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2a…b7b5backed Yes | 15c | 116.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 63c | 108$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 75c | 106.44$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 22c | 101.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…51f8backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 57cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked Yes | 20c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 17c | 96.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 21c | 91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 56c | 87.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c0…bafcbacked Yes | 32c | 84.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 78c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 40c | 62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 25cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 62c | 52.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 29c | 51.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b3…bad4backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a30…9726backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c5…2fd9backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…967cbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…9065backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +184%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…6254backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x239f…8b82backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 38c | 48.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 55c | 45.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e6…dcf1backed No | 57c | 44.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6159backed Yes | 40c | 41.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…fa87backed Yes | 25c | 40.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x935c…19e7backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb83…42d5backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 109 | 67%73 W · 36 L | +12.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 57c | 38.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30da…34b7backed No | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe0…48e5backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ce…b622backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd823…12febacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d0…bc0abacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea5…a6e2backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 58c | 24.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.41per pick | 48cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…b9cdbacked No | 68c | 22.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb959…859cbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0424…f722backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c5…91d7backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x039b…f701backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1b…b45dbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?this page
- Will there be 80 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?No won
- Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?Yes won
- Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?No won
- Will there be between 60 and 80 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.