Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97f5ca5b98cd758b96fadef03508a3ae26a3e655e64a2e1fc62aa3ac4ad391c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 40c | 2,401$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,447.04 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 31c | 2,306$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,585.85 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 71c | 1,792$1,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.71 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 5c | 1,641$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,562.32 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 50c | 1,476$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.33 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,349$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,324.94 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 35c | 1,259$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.46 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 4c | 1,172$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,122.05 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 3c | 1,133$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095.25 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 9c | 1,120$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.35 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 2c | 816.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.07 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 709.2$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.36 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed No | 50c | 599.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 9c | 470.34$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.22 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 3c | 438.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked Yes | 42c | 430.56$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.56 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 386.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.99 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 8c | 343.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.73 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 61c | 341.17$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.57 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 299.39$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.45 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 35c | 293.92$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.62 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 281.28$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.88 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 242.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.36 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 76c | 233.73$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.24 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 78c | 211.18$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.1 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked Yes | 50c | 198.6$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.3 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 13c | 185.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.18 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 6c | 176.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.83 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 35c | 171.88$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.87 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 171.71$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.91 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 166.07$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 34c | 163.65$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.32 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 60c | 160$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 11c | 154.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.89 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 152$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.97 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 78c | 150.74$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.19 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 24c | 142.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.25 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 44c | 142.13$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.13 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 49c | 139.76$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.58 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 75c | 139.59$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.39 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f70…bee9backed Yes | 7c | 135.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +252%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 13c | 114.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.38 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 38c | 103.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.12 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 40c | 101.66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.98 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.92 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 15c | 87.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed No | 59c | 84.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 13c | 84.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.67 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 36c | 81.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 68c | 80.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 17c | 75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed Yes | 20c | 72.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.29 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 68.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 36c | 64.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked No | 58c | 53.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 35c | 49.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 49.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7130…5387backed Yes | 50c | 45.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 57cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 33c | 31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 80c | 26.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 24.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab1f…b645backed No | 65c | 23.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 65c | 23.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f37…1952backed No | 56c | 21.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x314b…4681backed No | 73c | 20.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 73c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C or below on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.