TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,671
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,615

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,671 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ae0…7483backed Yes40c1,035$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.2610539%41 W · 64 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x17e0…fe5bbacked No57c600.21$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.9331043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes9c557.88$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.841,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes41c528.37$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.0265043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes23c457.08$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.68,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No62c386.97$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.7210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No60c352.2$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.285,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf33c…488cbacked Yes42c261.89$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9510244.1%45 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No59c259.67$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1072,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No58c251.85$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.615,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No59c232.72$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.0160054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes47c222.2$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No58c198.2$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.242,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No58c176.85$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.961,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb106…13f4backed Yes23c176.19$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409051.1%46 W · 44 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0fe9…56d9backed No80c150$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.095570.9%39 W · 16 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+20.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes47c150$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.851,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes17c143$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.314,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No61c139.99$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.61,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes31c131.86$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.751,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No58c125.13$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.054,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No63c124.75$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.499,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No53c124.56$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.91,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No54c123.19$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.254,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No52c121.8$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.2180560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes32c119.86$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.872,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No62c118.24$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.4812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes13c117.63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.056,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f04…626ebacked Yes34c112.24$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3830%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes46c108.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010354.4%56 W · 47 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda56…4176backed Yes38c100.14$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9312934.1%44 W · 85 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.51,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes24c98.16$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5675546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes42c94.55$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.991,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No57c89.74$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.894,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc196…4af6backed No55c86.63$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8327056.7%153 W · 117 L-1.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No54c82.17$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.82,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No64c81.8$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.813,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No55c81$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.524,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x156b…5808backed Yes33c80.61$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4240535.6%144 W · 261 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf993…ad52backed Yes38c79.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.44443.2%19 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c30…0ac6backed Yes35c75$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.34751.1%24 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No70c75$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.75,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes41c74.78$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.661,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes13c74.67$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1058138.9%226 W · 355 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b95…0d70backed Yes41c73.31$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No54c72.87$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3694552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No54c72.84$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.843,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9248…6955backed Yes45c72.8$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.056442.2%27 W · 37 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x451a…3b01backed No55c72.73$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7317858.4%104 W · 74 L-0.6wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes46c72.53$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.371,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No61c70.08$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.671,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No61c66.42$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9780957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf591…b8c7backed Yes38c65.79$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfddf…1686backed No58c65$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0264167.6%433 W · 208 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes48c62.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010746.7%50 W · 57 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa7a…d837backed Yes49c61.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.22per pick41cpaid+59%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes41c60.93$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.812,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65c7…e100backed Yes45c60$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2722744.1%100 W · 127 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes33c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.83,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No66c59.39$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1965353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5174…8a39backed Yes47c53.19$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251850%9 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked Yes40c52.96$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1833746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf370…4f88backed No72c52.96$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7338860.1%233 W · 155 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2160739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked Yes47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7344646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0657…d0b7backed No52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+47.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No59c47.44$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.452,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0838…64f6backed Yes42c47.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2021052.4%110 W · 100 L+14.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes41c46.44$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.043,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No63c44.22$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.43,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No56c44.07$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.683459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b19…bae5backed No64c42.88$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.441560%9 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No61c41.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4498565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No59c40.39$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.66,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x515c…7587backed No60c39.33$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7719648%94 W · 102 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No68c37.96$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1667336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No55c37.36$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.777,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9387…d659backed Yes40c37.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8127130.6%83 W · 188 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked No62c37$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0693837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No52c35.68$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.981,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked Yes48c35.49$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0448743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3580…714ebacked No64c34.81$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.532152.4%11 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick63cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No63c34.81$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.932,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No60c34.8$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.921,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes46c34.13$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.757948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No67c33.43$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0358358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No60c33.35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3494066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed13…ac4abacked Yes37c32.59$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.061450%7 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb26d…73f7backed Yes41c32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0825261.9%156 W · 96 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa33d…3ef2backed No64c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2545675.2%343 W · 113 L+27.6wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0187…0200backed Yes39c30.36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.846640.9%27 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No67c29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4699571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e48…9143backed No66c27.97$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.518737.9%33 W · 54 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes44c27.42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.063,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed No72c26.32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3786952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f37…1952backed No60c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106437.5%24 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid+15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed No60c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1042555.1%234 W · 191 L+13.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No58c24.09$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.081,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc426…ac6ebacked No53c24.01$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2814646.6%68 W · 78 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.