Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc96eb5e722557671c3ee9ece8b6bb4cbdda1d049e685f041d50b7fa066739e99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,136
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 4,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…55e4backed No | 32c | 3,733$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,533.58 | 48 | 87.5%42 W · 6 L | +12.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +49%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 1,610$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.83 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 31c | 1,035$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.99 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 3c | 892$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 19c | 821.15$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.22 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked No | 69c | 680.55$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.48 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 529.52$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.83 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 508.32$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.1 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25b2…4edbbacked No | 74c | 404.93$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.93 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 38c | 345.65$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.73 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 78c | 288.98$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.54 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 272$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.67 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 29c | 251.69$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.34 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 33c | 243.18$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.25 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 242.12$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 63c | 239.04$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.62 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f68…c408backed No | 24c | 217.13$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.8 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 64c | 173.6$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.14 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 161.74$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 60c | 139.71$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.15 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 60c | 138.09$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.65 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 78c | 137.37$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 135$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.51 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 21c | 133$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 122.25$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 70c | 121.8$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 72c | 121.42$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 29c | 119.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked No | 10c | 117.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.74 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 73c | 115.67$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22d9…ee63backed Yes | 32c | 115.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…626ebacked Yes | 31c | 112.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed No | 12c | 112.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.14 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 29c | 109.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 73c | 108.16$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 24c | 104.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 103.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 42c | 102.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 17c | 101.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 25c | 99.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 16c | 99.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked No | 57c | 99.5$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 29c | 95.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 94.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 36c | 93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 91.42$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 33c | 84.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 36c | 80.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 14c | 80.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 73c | 80.32$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf993…ad52backed Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 32c | 78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 23c | 77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 71c | 74.69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 72c | 73.15$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 64c | 71.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 73c | 70.88$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7247…ecb6backed No | 75c | 68.22$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 67.08$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 27c | 67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 53c | 64.35$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 60c | 63.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 40c | 62.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 24c | 53.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.77 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 23c | 52.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 77c | 51.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 75c | 51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc75…a085backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 32c | 48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 75c | 46.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 45c | 44.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 44.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 44.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 24c | 43.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 77c | 41.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 40.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 33c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…7769backed Yes | 80c | 35.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d9…6da7backed No | 52c | 34.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 34.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 57c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 31.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 80c | 30.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 36c | 30.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 58c | 30.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe61b…b4adbacked Yes | 54c | 29.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C or below on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.