MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76ee3a4225199fa4e4be52c5767cfd00f7fa9af6872f40a7a51d6dad8581629f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 54c | 35,024$18,896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,895.96 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 46c | 33,359$15,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,013.4 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e6…1dc1backed Under | 54c | 4,840$2,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,613.44 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Over | 46c | 4,000$1,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,139.99 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 47c | 2,852$1,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,521.74 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d8…e9a1backed Under | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.99 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 32c | 1,646$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.21 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 53c | 1,555$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.14 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…dcd2backed Over | 48c | 1,450$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | +9.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 47c | 1,046$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.38 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 47c | 883.3$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.15 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 71c | 882.63$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.19 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 813.33$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.16 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 46c | 770$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.61 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 67c | 711.92$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.73 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 46c | 519.84$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.9 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 495.69$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.72 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 48c | 478.45$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.61 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Under | 53c | 471.7$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 47c | 400$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.6 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…6736backed Over | 47c | 371.89$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.1 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee6b…accbbacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 46c | 191.8$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.41 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed Over | 46c | 163.04$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.04 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 52c | 159.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 46c | 150.98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.53 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 46c | 146$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.84 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 48c | 142.92$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.68 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 52c | 120$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 46c | 113.4$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.76 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Over | 47c | 108.7$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.61 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fff…5495backed Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +7.3wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Over | 47c | 104.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.26 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 43c | 103.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 47c | 95.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 50c | 95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 57c | 91.4$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.71 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 60c | 90$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 53c | 77.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 53c | 66.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2148…3da9backed Over | 47c | 63.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf59b…7ab0backed Under | 53c | 63.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 46c | 61.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…5ac0backed Over | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 47c | 57.66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 46c | 50.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Over | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 509 | 54%275 W · 234 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 46c | 47.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 61c | 39.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 52c | 38.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 53c | 38.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 47c | 38.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 47c | 35.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 39c | 35.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Over | 61c | 32.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 53 | 67.9%36 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 47c | 30.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…2c05backed Under | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7130…5387backed Over | 48c | 28.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +96%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 67c | 24.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 54c | 23.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6a58backed Over | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7701…6ea2backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 170 | 51.8%88 W · 82 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bd…dd85backed Under | 55c | 18.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York YankeesCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.