MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f95af0e53c34c1104bda0304f049a76d8f7dc0803f8ea080b83707d57f648d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof Cleveland Guardians, New York Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Cleveland Guardians | 67c | 12,221$8,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,129.17 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Yankees | 35c | 8,299$2,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,394.07 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees | 69c | 6,846$4,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,149.43 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe16e…c3c7backed Cleveland Guardians | 32c | 5,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cleveland Guardians | 30c | 4,938$1,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,481.41 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Cleveland Guardians | 30c | 3,437$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,031.1 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed New York Yankees | 70c | 3,000$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed New York Yankees | 24c | 1,836$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,393.92 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed New York Yankees | 55c | 1,023$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.1 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked New York Yankees | 70c | 1,010$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked New York Yankees | 70c | 999.99$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees | 35c | 930.67$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.6 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed New York Yankees | 70c | 666.27$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.88 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Yankees | 35c | 529.28$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.54 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed New York Yankees | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Yankees | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed New York Yankees | 70c | 326.23$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.13 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees | 51c | 311.31$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.7 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6c…08ebbacked Cleveland Guardians | 31c | 170$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c48…f6f6backed Cleveland Guardians | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked New York Yankees | 68c | 149.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked New York Yankees | 33c | 146$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.82 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 67c | 106$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.02 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac15…75a4backed New York Yankees | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked New York Yankees | 65c | 59.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees | 54c | 59.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f97…6aafbacked Cleveland Guardians | 30c | 53.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d515backed New York Yankees | 56c | 49.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 111 | 55.9%62 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 42.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed New York Yankees | 35c | 41.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 39.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc08c…4b12backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbebc…095fbacked New York Yankees | 41c | 29.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Yankees | 51c | 27.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed New York Yankees | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed New York Yankees | 70c | 21.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed New York Yankees | 78c | 15.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked New York Yankees | 71c | 14.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce2…2f22backed Cleveland Guardians | 77c | 13.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York YankeesCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.