MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43bb0c28b014024d59510fbcb975801e95c3b1951f67464626ecca95ac6f8bcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof New York Yankees, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,692
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaca0…9b86backed New York Yankees | 40c | 8,679$3,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,471.53 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 7,232$4,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,820.65 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 5,389$3,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,155.5 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…d62abacked New York Yankees | 41c | 4,878$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 243 | 44.4%108 W · 135 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 3,204$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,313.58 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 1,288$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.28 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked New York Yankees | 39c | 1,140$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.02 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed New York Yankees | 39c | 1,049$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.16 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 920.69$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.18 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed New York Yankees | 39c | 802.94$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.22 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 700$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 506.69$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.82 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 883 | 49.3%435 W · 448 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees | 19c | 499.98$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.07 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed New York Yankees | 38c | 400.01$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.34 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…d241backed Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 331.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.37 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed New York Yankees | 39c | 321.24$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.43 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed New York Yankees | 41c | 313.34$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.47 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees | 39c | 274.29$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac15…75a4backed New York Yankees | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked New York Yankees | 37c | 149.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked New York Yankees | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d43…86e7backed New York Yankees | 40c | 128.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.23 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed New York Yankees | 38c | 117$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed New York Yankees | 38c | 117$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeded…bfe9backed New York Yankees | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 82.87$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 424 | 55.4%235 W · 189 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6796…453fbacked New York Yankees | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 709 | 50.1%355 W · 354 L | +24.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed New York Yankees | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc766…1533backed New York Yankees | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed New York Yankees | 38c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 572 | 44.6%255 W · 317 L | -35.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed New York Yankees | 40c | 35.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…79bdbacked Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 25.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cleveland Guardians | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 24.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Cleveland Guardians | 71c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York YankeesCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.