Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfda386206f5870f4a61169c4119d35822b0d4c7ed35df52638cd36675ada0524
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked Yes | 44c | 801.94$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.94 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 58c | 562$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.6 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 40c | 388.58$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.24 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 365.88$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.84 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 26c | 264.61$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.68 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66f4…6ad5backed Yes | 78c | 254.46$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.47 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6e37…c952backed Yes | 6c | 245$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.75 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…36d6backed Yes | 79c | 230.74$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.81 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 56c | 204.8$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.66 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 70c | 200.26$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.29 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 7c | 147.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 8c | 139.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 33c | 136.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.02 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed Yes | 21c | 133$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.34 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 22c | 121.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 120.6$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.03 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 22c | 115.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 22c | 97.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.35 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 78c | 89.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 82.39$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.14 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7130…5387backed Yes | 55c | 55.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 57cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f70…133ebacked No | 47c | 52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 45c | 48.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 50c | 25.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…0b98backed Yes | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 119 | 83.2%99 W · 20 L | +21.5wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on July 7?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on July 7?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on July 7?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on July 7?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.