Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ae2c140cb925c9e328c602078db7cd5375980c4f619d58de69615d0af0e2ed0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…eb9fbacked No | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.86 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.9wins | +0.26per pick | 61cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 3c | 806$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 60c | 756.68$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.12 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 63c | 503.69$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.81 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 62c | 459.49$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.63 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 38c | 406.2$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.9 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb11f…336fbacked No | 31c | 180.09$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.76 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 56c | 155$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 33c | 140.11$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.71 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 45c | 133.97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.05 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 46c | 130.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 130$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.13 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…0787backed Yes | 79c | 128.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 38c | 110$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 23c | 108$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 30c | 107.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.21 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 59c | 104.87$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.11 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed No | 25c | 101.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.25 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 47c | 90$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…b2c2backed No | 35c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 19c | 83.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 81.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.93 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 36c | 81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.82 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 19c | 68.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 21c | 56.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 39c | 51.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 31c | 50.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked Yes | 75c | 48.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 23c | 43.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd998…918bbacked Yes | 69c | 27.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 25.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe783…50bbbacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 56c | 24.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on July 7?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on July 7?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on July 7?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on July 7?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.