Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68e34f62006bfdb0e9932f39a45a968f3260fe8b9d45817ea9fdbc45565981d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,693
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,693 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 29c | 1,607$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.08 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed No | 76c | 1,276$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.87 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 3c | 964.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 16c | 705$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.6 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 697.3$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 32c | 640.77$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.63 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 36c | 558.02$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.65 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed Yes | 27c | 532.78$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.05 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 74c | 498.39$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 13c | 449.21$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 25c | 405.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.12 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 42c | 398.21$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.85 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 15c | 396.53$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.69 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 365.81$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.67 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 13c | 363.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…089fbacked Yes | 25c | 360$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.03 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 23c | 331.65$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.23 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 4c | 299.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 29c | 295.21$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.49 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4c…a2c1backed Yes | 79c | 286.63$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.39 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 77c | 270.26$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.43 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 75c | 264$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 27c | 241.1$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1541…fdd0backed No | 8c | 228.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 42c | 221.28$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.42 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 192.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.37 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 13c | 192.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 28c | 177.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.64 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 174$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 26c | 172.88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.14 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 72c | 160$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 10c | 150.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked Yes | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 150$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.62 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.5 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19c6…3ecfbacked Yes | 79c | 149.8$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 66c | 148.44$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.28 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 146.76$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.2 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 145.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.19 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 142.5$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 71c | 139.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked Yes | 75c | 132.2$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 27c | 130.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.68 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 26c | 124.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.52 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 80c | 119.83$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 103.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 19c | 102.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 17c | 101.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.86 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 76c | 100.16$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 73c | 95.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.59 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 73c | 94.24$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.81 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 28c | 94.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.28 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 17c | 91.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 91.04$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.69 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 90.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.44 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 27c | 90.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.09 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 79c | 86.52$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf691…3ec1backed Yes | 24c | 84.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.62 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 29c | 83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 54c | 79.42$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 77c | 77.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 25c | 74.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.75 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 76c | 74.1$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.49 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7a…d837backed Yes | 27c | 73.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.69 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +59%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 75c | 73.53$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 72c | 69.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc47a…93dfbacked No | 36c | 68.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 78c | 65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 70c | 63.46$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 17c | 63.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 24c | 62.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 35c | 56.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 72c | 55.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 23c | 54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 79c | 53.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 52.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 49c | 51.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 78c | 51.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…b9e8backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b6…cc7bbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 29c | 49.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 60c | 48.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed No | 29c | 46.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 71c | 40.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 27c | 40.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…04c2backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed Yes | 72c | 39.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 29c | 37.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 69c | 34.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 68c | 33.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7130…5387backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 57cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 56c | 29.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or below on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.