Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b9eed70a40e8cda8b2d033e3da2b61a240b10c44e85883fdf954a00132f8aab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 4c | 6,214$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.36 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ec…9868backed Yes | 1c | 2,046$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 1,544$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.34 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 1,168$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 41c | 963.26$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.67 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 939.9$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.81 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…2433backed No | 60c | 902.87$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.37 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 55c | 875.78$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.6 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…089fbacked Yes | 52c | 859.37$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.88 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x571d…4e76backed No | 54c | 798.14$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.49 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 79c | 764.31$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 726.06$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.01 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 53c | 461.97$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.3 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 59c | 393.49$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.06 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 365.81$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.75 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 16c | 365.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.79 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 78c | 316.38$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 42c | 298.67$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.32 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 30c | 256.28$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.21 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d2…ec9cbacked Yes | 43c | 233.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 48c | 231.61$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.32 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 60c | 230.85$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.24 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 50c | 218.45$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.09 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 37c | 199.52$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.52 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 38c | 199.47$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.39 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed No | 25c | 194$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.01 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 193.67$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.9 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 13c | 192$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 27c | 185$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.05 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 33c | 175$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 36c | 171.21$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.36 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 69c | 170$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed No | 68c | 162.5$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.67 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 142.5$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.49 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 73c | 142.49$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 129.07$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 38c | 125.67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.31 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc19…e2cdbacked Yes | 46c | 124.63$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 34c | 119.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 51c | 119.4$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.89 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 43c | 109.25$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.33 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 41c | 102.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.04 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 25c | 101.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.84 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 61c | 99.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 51c | 98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 49c | 97.2$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.39 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 38c | 91.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 90.37$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 30c | 90$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96a2…a1a7backed No | 74c | 87.25$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 86.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 59c | 76.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes | 78c | 74.07$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 80c | 71.92$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.26 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 33c | 71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.77 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 45c | 70.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 30c | 69.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed Yes | 74c | 68.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 77c | 64.22$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 29c | 60.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 55c | 57.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 27c | 57.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 33c | 56.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 33c | 50.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8953…e093backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 31c | 47.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 69c | 46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 38c | 45.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20c0…22b4backed Yes | 34c | 43.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 26c | 40.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 46c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 31c | 39.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3f…e0c1backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 65c | 35.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 34c | 35.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…04c2backed Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 72c | 34.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 63c | 33.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 40c | 31.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 67c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 45c | 30.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…0d5dbacked No | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or below on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.