Middle East · resolved market
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa77a8fbea7a5e0969a608d44ead3c399aa8d4e740e2078dfdd5a49dab570f25e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $181,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $165,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $181,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 39c | 13,421$5,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,296.83 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 14c | 12,857$1,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,783.77 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83f1…1936backed Yes | 21c | 9,062$1,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,918.18 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 79c | 5,358$4,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,148.97 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 38c | 5,155$1,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,968.61 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 61c | 4,529$2,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,745.03 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked No | 11c | 3,474$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,076.92 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 42c | 3,054$1,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,276.44 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8d…01debacked Yes | 19c | 3,026$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.44 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 16c | 3,014$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.78 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd026…ec2fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,486$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed No | 73c | 2,445$1,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.05 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6519…611bbacked Yes | 28c | 2,429$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.01 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 17c | 2,189$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.62 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked Yes | 66c | 2,000$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 13c | 1,748$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.48 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…b814backed No | 76c | 1,360$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.44 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e0eebacked Yes | 15c | 1,290$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.6 | 108 | 38%41 W · 67 L | +11.5wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked No | 16c | 1,283$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.35 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes | 17c | 1,227$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.09 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 62c | 1,095$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.81 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 40c | 1,074$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.91 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 977.57$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.76 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 8c | 950$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 15c | 824.46$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.83 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be4…dcbbbacked Yes | 13c | 799.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 78 | 64.1%50 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a29…5f03backed Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…e0c5backed Yes | 30c | 762.65$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.46 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 17c | 709.22$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.6 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8c…4df4backed No | 76c | 703.95$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed No | 71c | 702.77$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.27 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 37c | 701.07$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.11 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 42c | 684.79$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.21 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 34c | 684.03$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.22 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20b3…d24cbacked No | 79c | 672.14$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 604.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 12c | 599.89$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.37 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…527cbacked Yes | 24c | 558.32$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 12c | 555$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.69 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e3…b6d0backed No | 76c | 527.9$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 513.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb1…ecdbbacked No | 40c | 501.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.62 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x708d…ea78backed No | 56c | 494.99$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.8 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 19c | 491.55$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.84 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 25c | 481.76$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.96 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Yes | 15c | 439.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.89 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked Yes | 28c | 417.38$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.52 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe65f…9352backed Yes | 33c | 406.59$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.28 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0f0bbacked No | 75c | 404.87$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.99 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaa…51dfbacked Yes | 16c | 400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +9.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…ee15backed Yes | 30c | 395$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…97babacked Yes | 26c | 388.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe32…1a05backed Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 69c | 336.79$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.23 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 70c | 316.48$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.51 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x386c…8323backed No | 48c | 314.54$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.54 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +8.7wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked No | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | +19.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1877…78d7backed Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 24c | 285.04$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.32 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2948…788abacked No | 55c | 275.8$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.69 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +8.0wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 75c | 268.07$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.97 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 4c | 260$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…d4a4backed Yes | 24c | 258.01$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x369c…eab1backed Yes | 44c | 237.88$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.18 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -8.3wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -34%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 13c | 231.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…869ebacked Yes | 66c | 227.27$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5835…9404backed Yes | 19c | 222$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -5.1wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 16c | 211$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…9411backed No | 71c | 207.07$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.05 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…dcc6backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 154 | 34.4%53 W · 101 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…e573backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…8a05backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…af68backed No | 11c | 200$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3c…5eeabacked Yes | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…0614backed Yes | 12c | 191.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -12.4wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -50%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 57c | 187$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.69 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4c…d6a2backed No | 39c | 183.64$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.72 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b9…0a8bbacked No | 43c | 174$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 20c | 163$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed No | 26c | 160.18$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.19 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…6c68backed Yes | 10c | 159.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd83c…34f6backed Yes | 14c | 150.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52a8…83f2backed No | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 72c | 135$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -7.4wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x08eb…9ca4backed No | 49c | 123.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.29 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 32c | 120$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.8 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a8…7d37backed No | 50c | 119.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.23 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 21.8%19 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69e6…a2afbacked Yes | 21c | 116.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…b936backed Yes | 26c | 113.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 121 | 14%17 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4f…a849backed No | 62c | 109.45$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 77c | 108.6$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +11.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 20c | 105.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed No | 76c | 105$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 161 | 31.7%51 W · 110 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?this page
- Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will King Abdullah II attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Mohammed bin Salman attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.