Middle East · resolved market
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd85740fcb891a4e12edd6fdb26656cb24e65f12aee67193ca751bb6ffdc184c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $277,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $246,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $277,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 210 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 27c | 26,015$7,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,142.03 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 18c | 11,607$2,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,078.93 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 17c | 8,033$1,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350.74 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9175…6acfbacked No | 71c | 5,507$3,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,606.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Yes | 1c | 4,370$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +62%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe555…a91dbacked Yes | 20c | 4,000$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 35c | 3,957$1,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,393.55 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked No | 8c | 3,374$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,108.51 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 3c | 3,200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd026…ec2fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,157$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6519…611bbacked Yes | 37c | 3,048$1,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130.89 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05df…882dbacked Yes | 11c | 2,864$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.09 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 21c | 2,855$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.93 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 73c | 2,767$2,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.89 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0262…d7b6backed Yes | 46c | 2,602$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,202.15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e0eebacked Yes | 10c | 2,394$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.49 | 108 | 38%41 W · 67 L | +11.5wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x708d…ea78backed Yes | 56c | 2,393$1,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,333.92 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 18c | 2,206$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.43 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72de…a5edbacked Yes | 17c | 2,027$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.54 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes | 12c | 2,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…b919backed Yes | 29c | 1,960$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.4 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 69c | 1,915$1,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.6 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 1,852$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 8c | 1,707$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.89 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed Yes | 29c | 1,668$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.88 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 18c | 1,666$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.42 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67f8…6ccebacked Yes | 25c | 1,596$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 11c | 1,577$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.09 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83f1…1936backed Yes | 20c | 1,477$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 1,442$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 45c | 1,420$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.61 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1940…0ea1backed Yes | 10c | 1,272$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,259$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.26 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2948…788abacked No | 41c | 1,188$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.12 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +8.0wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed No | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…527cbacked Yes | 15c | 982.27$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Yes | 31c | 977.09$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 30cpaid | +443.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 18c | 880$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.7 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9896…c430backed Yes | 17c | 866.66$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd416…d9e2backed No | 66c | 852.28$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.48 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 9c | 851.52$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.08 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 833.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f71…4e83backed Yes | 27c | 811$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.33 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…303abacked Yes | 38c | 792.79$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0354…2913backed Yes | 29c | 791.6$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.26 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…e573backed Yes | 20c | 774.55$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.2 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fa…ce71backed Yes | 3c | 767.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 7c | 740.03$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 26c | 732.79$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.23 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | +19.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…f62dbacked Yes | 29c | 654.92$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 650.41$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.95 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b7…b0b3backed Yes | 18c | 610.65$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 37c | 600$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 37c | 600$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +24.9wins | +0.25per pick | 30cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…8a05backed Yes | 22c | 599.87$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.97 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…9411backed No | 71c | 579.36$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.24 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb1…acc2backed No | 35c | 536$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3db…bba6backed Yes | 9c | 518.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb254…ee4fbacked Yes | 12c | 517.74$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20b3…d24cbacked No | 70c | 507.23$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.2 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe65f…9352backed Yes | 33c | 505.21$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.03 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 41c | 477.29$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.86 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked No | 20c | 453.24$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.45 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +70%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0777…4b7fbacked Yes | 10c | 430.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +26%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…2a24backed Yes | 9c | 421.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67dd…dbd3backed Yes | 12c | 416.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…3a1bbacked No | 61c | 405$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.6 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed No | 69c | 405$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.55 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be4…dcbbbacked Yes | 20c | 400$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 78 | 64.1%50 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 72c | 400$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed Yes | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a5…51b4backed Yes | 21c | 399.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.41per pick | 43cpaid | +192.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 10c | 390$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 58c | 390$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.4 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafe2…b686backed No | 40c | 386$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.17 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2598…40a3backed Yes | 60c | 375.62$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…af68backed No | 6c | 366.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.13 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a87…89eabacked Yes | 16c | 359.71$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.02 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 44c | 341.75$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.23 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb157…f7cebacked No | 10c | 340.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.3 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked No | 66c | 329.99$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.43 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked No | 67c | 327.42$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.16 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…15e5backed No | 17c | 321.19$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed No | 72c | 307$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.85 | 118 | 42.4%50 W · 68 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 44c | 307$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.08 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…ea5dbacked No | 66c | 305$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.7 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…01f5backed Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 20c | 300$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.45 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3116…fc46backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 35c | 300$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.8 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Yes | 15c | 300$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 161 | 31.7%51 W · 110 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…9e4abacked Yes | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 24c | 297.24$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.17 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 11c | 295.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c3…3899backed Yes | 14c | 285.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 13c | 270$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5255…6e58backed Yes | 77c | 246.4$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.54 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d73…4598backed Yes | 11c | 244.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 8c | 237.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…b5adbacked Yes | 36c | 235.91$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?this page
- Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will King Abdullah II attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Mohammed bin Salman attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.