Middle East · resolved market
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x651c775b6de689abdc18840e3ec47f8e138771069f940342cb262dad98b68c11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd026…ec2fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,076$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,204$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 5c | 465.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 8c | 220$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 29c | 180$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe373…4807backed Yes | 14c | 160$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?this page
- Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will King Abdullah II attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Mohammed bin Salman attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.