Middle East · resolved market
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73de540e32b7a340fb01e7c7f2f22a96a74d2b057062e4daf4f7526e411aec2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 6c | 8,229$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.37 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 17c | 5,060$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.61 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed Yes | 3c | 3,607$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.96 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd026…ec2fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,341$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 2,084$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.3 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 8c | 1,703$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.03 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,417$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.47 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…6065backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 735$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 44c | 678.68$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.18 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 611.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 13c | 595.98$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.47 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 59c | 546.92$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.78 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 3c | 531.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes | 8c | 492.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 153 | 38.6%59 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 60c | 472.23$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.6 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb254…ee4fbacked Yes | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b9…04f6backed Yes | 5c | 348.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 27c | 337.3$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.47 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 72c | 326.1$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.6 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0443…2221backed No | 57c | 319.14$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.23 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be4…dcbbbacked Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 78 | 64.1%50 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 41c | 250$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -7.5wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a8…7d37backed Yes | 7c | 178.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 165.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 41c | 152.71$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.11 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed No | 73c | 132.25$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 121.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed No | 13c | 117.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.14 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | +16.6wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +48%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 33c | 101.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 159 | 43.4%69 W · 90 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x369c…eab1backed Yes | 50c | 64.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -8.3wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -34%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Yes | 33c | 60.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked No | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bca…c6dabacked No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | -17.8wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2277…6604backed Yes | 41c | 42.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbe…41afbacked Yes | 66c | 42.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -7.4wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6fef…66ecbacked Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fc…40bdbacked Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e13…e968backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdf…336cbacked Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x023d…3431backed Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5b…f580backed Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ca05backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f0…672bbacked Yes | 41c | 39.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes | 47c | 39.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba86…4354backed No | 59c | 33.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 79c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 186 | 40.9%76 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 67c | 30.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Yes | 33c | 30.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…64f0backed No | 58c | 29.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 44c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 63c | 23.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 63c | 23.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…3c12backed No | 45c | 23.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 99 | 81.8%81 W · 18 L | +9.7wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53e9…5ef8backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49dc…ea96backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6eb…21b9backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…5c84backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576e…f8e0backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?this page
- Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will King Abdullah II attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Mohammed bin Salman attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.