TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Black Phoenix (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Black Phoenixof ex-RUBY, Black Phoenix
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,281
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,255

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,281 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x82d2…beeabacked ex-RUBY60c2,500$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Black Phoenix40c2,112$854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,258.3549536.4%180 W · 315 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed ex-RUBY52c1,250$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.1726075%195 W · 65 L+23.6wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+11.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x051c…ca3fbacked ex-RUBY60c1,190$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.5635847.5%170 W · 188 L-13.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3f1…7535backed ex-RUBY10c1,068$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.913342.1%56 W · 77 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc818…1da3backed ex-RUBY47c1,029$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.618925.8%23 W · 66 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-44.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xec7b…917ebacked Black Phoenix17c999.98$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.9827740.8%113 W · 164 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f8e…0c69backed ex-RUBY49c999.97$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.9927438.3%105 W · 169 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked Black Phoenix39c962.4$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.0717448.3%84 W · 90 L-0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…f2d0backed ex-RUBY57c943.24$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.712450%12 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Black Phoenix47c894.61$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.397,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Black Phoenix39c848.8$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.722,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Black Phoenix43c677.29$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.061,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked ex-RUBY35c557.79$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.354,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00c4…4c30backed ex-RUBY54c554.43$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.11861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked ex-RUBY53c500$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.4675833.4%253 W · 505 L-48.9wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-31%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x07e8…faaebacked Black Phoenix50c495.27$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.2715346.4%71 W · 82 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Black Phoenix60c447.34$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.263,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x30dc…f26ebacked ex-RUBY45c433.58$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.1216236.4%59 W · 103 L-0.6wins0.00per pick37cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78f4…38eebacked ex-RUBY22c394.52$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick25cpaid-4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf95e…53ffbacked Black Phoenix53c393.52$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.9519849.5%98 W · 100 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7699…2ef6backed Black Phoenix28c364.23$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.06128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-70%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcc7…4d38backed ex-RUBY60c355.35$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.215662.5%35 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Black Phoenix52c336.79$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.6648851.8%253 W · 235 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Black Phoenix28c323.37$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.833,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3e83…00aabacked Black Phoenix39c312$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.8917142.1%72 W · 99 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked ex-RUBY41c309.81$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.84,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed ex-RUBY62c299.97$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.982,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Black Phoenix55c294$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.12,36246.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L-53.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb595…5922backed Black Phoenix63c293.69$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.3219953.8%107 W · 92 L+10.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c3b…2921backed Black Phoenix50c264.54$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.642065%13 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+34.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c6d…ab76backed Black Phoenix39c263$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.4333849.7%168 W · 170 L-1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Black Phoenix26c253.44$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.74,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c8c…2d81backed Black Phoenix50c238$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.0445748.1%220 W · 237 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Black Phoenix36c228$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.072,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6200…7d23backed Black Phoenix40c200$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.6516036.3%58 W · 102 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc0c…dac0backed ex-RUBY71c200$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.7241475.4%312 W · 102 L+22.1wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x57ae…9e60backed ex-RUBY50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5076…711abacked Black Phoenix52c189.48$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.594254.8%23 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50c2…6338backed Black Phoenix52c185.04$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.98250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53a5…fc83backed ex-RUBY47c180$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.595347.2%25 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04a1…d6e6backed Black Phoenix40c175$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1052653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed Black Phoenix40c173.04$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.8255039.6%218 W · 332 L-20.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4bed…5cd6backed ex-RUBY38c166.23$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.694050%20 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed ex-RUBY75c160.65$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.0569445%312 W · 382 L-24.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed ex-RUBY50c157.46$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.092,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5657…42a6backed ex-RUBY52c150$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788048.8%39 W · 41 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e6c…0c16backed Black Phoenix48c145.83$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.8319035.8%68 W · 122 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ee…a0bbbacked Black Phoenix41c140.62$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.644761.7%29 W · 18 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+16.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcfa2…7321backed Black Phoenix14c137.06$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.91931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid+15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7e0…8573backed ex-RUBY48c112.96$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.197250%36 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1058…01c1backed Black Phoenix56c111$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.841392.3%12 W · 1 L+4.0wins+0.31per pick61cpaid+55.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6add…6992backed ex-RUBY59c108.3$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648339.8%33 W · 50 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6a3…5532backed ex-RUBY61c105$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.05250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fab…9a70backed Black Phoenix62c102.29$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.745286.5%45 W · 7 L+9.9wins+0.19per pick68cpaid+27.6%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed Black Phoenix60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4044939.2%176 W · 273 L-0.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe962…7a52backed Black Phoenix45c99.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.996344.4%28 W · 35 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Black Phoenix51c94.97$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.979951.7%413 W · 386 L+25.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked ex-RUBY56c92.58$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4220447.1%96 W · 108 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79b5…df9bbacked ex-RUBY49c91.59$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.885536.4%20 W · 35 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8e4…3b32backed ex-RUBY67c91$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.973246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Black Phoenix38c85.74$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.161,31944.2%583 W · 736 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked Black Phoenix41c83.08$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.892,11047.2%995 W · 1,115 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Black Phoenix40c80.94$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.765,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x297a…198bbacked ex-RUBY50c80$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406232.3%20 W · 42 L-6.5wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-19.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb347…84b4backed Black Phoenix63c78.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.754273.8%31 W · 11 L+5.4wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+17.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb434…10d7backed Black Phoenix43c77$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.891844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa16b…c4f0backed Black Phoenix50c72.55$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.283259.4%19 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b96…4389backed Black Phoenix40c70.21$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.1337557.3%215 W · 160 L-16.4wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed ex-RUBY56c67.46$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.071,61846.8%758 W · 860 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x924d…6cb9backed ex-RUBY34c66.41$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.394242.9%18 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Black Phoenix30c66$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.883,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x62a8…2793backed ex-RUBY77c64.93$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.21per pick64cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed Black Phoenix51c64.14$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4449850.2%250 W · 248 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked ex-RUBY44c61.8$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4731440.1%126 W · 188 L-17.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-25.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b75…adc8backed Black Phoenix55c61.24$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed ex-RUBY61c52.9$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0161054.9%335 W · 275 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Black Phoenix40c50.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.114344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1159…7c71backed ex-RUBY44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.08333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-54.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9133…20acbacked Black Phoenix45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.52462.5%15 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+41.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9266…a9d3backed ex-RUBY62c49.85$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.077657.9%44 W · 32 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed ex-RUBY58c46.16$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7714344.1%63 W · 80 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b55…cbc6backed ex-RUBY26c45.54$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.846346%29 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Black Phoenix52c45.43$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7973948.4%358 W · 381 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f8e…21b7backed Black Phoenix30c44.25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7815349.7%76 W · 77 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b6b…acabbacked Black Phoenix55c41$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.452962.1%18 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad22…014abacked ex-RUBY53c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.265548.9%320 W · 335 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb91c…ed66backed ex-RUBY50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070042.3%296 W · 404 L-16.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bfa…5e79backed ex-RUBY64c38.58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.695444.4%24 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabe6…2faebacked Black Phoenix65c35.51$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.437245.8%33 W · 39 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+28.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e1c…35c6backed ex-RUBY53c34.63$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4521454.2%116 W · 98 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x042d…0b81backed Black Phoenix40c33.77$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2610560%63 W · 42 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Black Phoenix49c33.49$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.995,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72a3…1753backed ex-RUBY49c29.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.77159.2%42 W · 29 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb66e…ffc2backed ex-RUBY51c29.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.934360.5%26 W · 17 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+26.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed ex-RUBY62c28.35$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5888330.7%271 W · 612 L-63.8wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Black Phoenix41c28.3$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.721750.7%110 W · 107 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked Black Phoenix58c27.22$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.451,06855%587 W · 481 L-1.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb21b…88f9backed ex-RUBY59c26.79$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8147054%254 W · 216 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf66a…bcb8backed Black Phoenix57c26.22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.223666.7%24 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.