Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will US Mondorf-les-Bains win on 2026-07-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x950f5e26c0ae88cd59d60fc491e4f7ad5544e0038ea0299ff01026744a0e79b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,286
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,286 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 11c | 2,134$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,898.91 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Yes | 52c | 1,134$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.64 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…f72abacked No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 12c | 728.26$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.87 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 11c | 371.09$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.27 | 200 | 50%100 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Yes | 70c | 280.14$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.62 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +15.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…d55ebacked No | 28c | 275.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.57 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b9…0a8bbacked No | 30c | 266$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 10c | 243.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.56 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…b70cbacked Yes | 13c | 227.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.56 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 73c | 179.09$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.66 | 170 | 59.4%101 W · 69 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 10c | 149.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.7 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 11c | 121$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 152 | 40.8%62 W · 90 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 35c | 120.39$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 192 | 50.5%97 W · 95 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x928d…c482backed No | 12c | 92.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 27c | 75.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 27c | 68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed No | 68c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 324 | 36.4%118 W · 206 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Yes | 47c | 26.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed Yes | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 202 | 44.6%90 W · 112 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US Mondorf-les-Bains win on 2026-07-16?this page
- Will SK Dinamo Tbilisi vs. US Mondorf-les-Bains end in a draw?No won
- Will SK Dinamo Tbilisi win on 2026-07-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.