Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by June 30 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca82ed3455cfbaa04e178c1830473bf2b9998710df719caa254937a9d374e161
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,743
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37b1…840ebacked No | 0c | 2,193$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b6…febfbacked No | 4c | 1,310$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb27…7347backed No | 1c | 1,290$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 1c | 1,256$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29e7…fbbfbacked No | 10c | 1,217$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.07 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd54…733bbacked No | 1c | 1,121$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 1c | 1,113$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8212…5933backed No | 5c | 996.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x687d…e28bbacked Yes | 79c | 654.98$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 10c | 555.97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 5c | 450$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 17c | 422.31$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.06 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 8c | 377.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x003b…1ebebacked No | 11c | 366.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe102…71dfbacked No | 20c | 173.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…9e4bbacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 11c | 91.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked No | 20c | 69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x628a…6895backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 75c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbea0…e19dbacked No | 25c | 44.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 44c | 31.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by June 30 2026?this page
- Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 15 2026?No won
- Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?No won
- Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.