Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x891506111ddfbd8e9506abd1ee226d89544e75c2c3eebbbdb875347d9a0ffff3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $143,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $159,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $143,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48d5…ec29backed No | 0c | 30,559$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.46 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fff…5495backed No | 1c | 18,208$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…6db9backed No | 1c | 11,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca5d…6ed9backed No | 0c | 11,020$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 9c | 1,527$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.03 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcb…a61bbacked No | 14c | 1,053$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b6…febfbacked No | 6c | 729.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 5c | 577.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 75c | 516.85$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.8 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 22c | 393.4$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.82 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed No | 6c | 389$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 8c | 385.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd54…733bbacked No | 3c | 325$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked No | 11c | 292.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 11c | 224.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2946…8eb4backed No | 9c | 224.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 5c | 217.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc304…c6bbbacked No | 21c | 189.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…5fb0backed No | 9c | 187.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked No | 22c | 174.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed No | 26c | 140.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d9…5490backed Yes | 67c | 137.03$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.62 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 47c | 125.03$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.01 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 26c | 103.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…6789backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…6bbbbacked No | 19c | 93.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked No | 27c | 92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed Yes | 76c | 90.33$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 52cpaid | +154.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…d531backed No | 33c | 86.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed Yes | 72c | 84.29$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0b…4d31backed No | 28c | 82.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d338backed No | 27c | 78.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 74c | 76.61$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 21c | 66.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7d…8b5abacked Yes | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…34b9backed No | 28c | 55.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed No | 27c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…b306backed No | 27c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fa…ce71backed No | 28c | 36.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?this page
- Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by June 30 2026?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 15 2026?No won
- Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.