TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0a2d…6db9

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
371
Categories scored
27
Categories below 50
14

Best Category: Europa Conference League, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Europa Conference League at 55 out of 100; worst Bundesliga at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Premier Leaguelast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT15543.9%68 W · 87 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 155 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fulham FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$360Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$360
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-08-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$350
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$350
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-08-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$366Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$366
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)backed Manchester United FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$6,993Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,993.32
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$656Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$656
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+50.2%+$103
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$436Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$436
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$452.63
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$366.67
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$305Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$496.95
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$804Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$804
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$306Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$195.64
Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,500Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+37.2%+$558
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+150%+$300
AFC Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$168.75
Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$147.76
Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,542Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,541.5
Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$276.96
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$300.37
Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$159.89
Showing 25 of 155 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT8139.5%32 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 81 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$42.86
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+506.1%+$1,518.18
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$514.29
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Ferran Torres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$650Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+68.8%+$447.05
France vs. England: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$280
Will France win on 2026-07-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$350
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$1,010Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,010
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$137
Will the announcers say "VAR" during the Norway vs England FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+37%+$36.99
Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked Belgium · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$160
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$550Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$270.9
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$284.62
Harry Kane: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+300%+$300
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Austria?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Belgium vs. Senegal: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$1,100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,100
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Brazil vs. Japan: Draw at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$133.96
Showing 25 of 81 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT4344.2%19 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 43 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$1,200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,200
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,500Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$500
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$510Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$510
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$735Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$734.96
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$752.81
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$196Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$195.53
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$340.83
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$90
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$105
Will Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+37%+$184.93
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$270
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$108.33
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$138.1
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$63.93
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$334.78
Will Paris Saint-Germain advance to the round of 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$250
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-12-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+132.6%+$132.56
Showing 25 of 43 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT1650%8 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+59.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$771.83
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$261.92
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+952.6%+$776.94
Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+123.7%+$371.61
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$85.71
Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Zama auction clearing price above $0.05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+37%+$36.99
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+50.4%+$10.07
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Stable launch a token in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$99.99
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$1,500
Meteora FDV above $4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Paxos win the USDH ticker?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
$PEPE vs. $WIF - First to $10B?backed $PEPE · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2024, EST+49.3%+$6.6
Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) between $10-15b one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 2, 2024, EDT-100%-$14
All 16 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 12, 2026, EDT130%0 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$10.8
All 13 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.17
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+733.3%+$879.98
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$1,654Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,653.57
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$10
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$80
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Iran strike on Israel in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 12 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT90%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$310.06
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$1,800Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,800
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 9 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+49.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference Leaguelast resolved Aug 12, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+57.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick62cpaid-56.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick10cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+366.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+833.3%+$1,250
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$250
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$316.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will United States win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+257.1%+$720
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+211%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-04-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+211%+$202.39
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Colorado Rockies vs. New York Metsbacked Colorado Rockies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$222Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$377.97
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$14.48
All 1 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Cricket — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titansbacked Royal Challengers Bengaluru · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+66.5%+$665.44
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.02
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Madrid Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Elena Rybakinabacked Qinwen Zheng · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$380Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$380
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$116
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Feb 17, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sparta Rotterdam win on 2026-02-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$500
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #5 Group Stagebacked G2 Ares · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $12 million?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$3,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$3,000
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.