Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0955e90d5000e20a43af5c16458643b8195dd1014ea1649bbd0149a425240056

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 17, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $556,413
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $185,684

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $556,413 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes	0c	55,555$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.55	87	19.5%17 W · 70 L	+5.9wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	21,923$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	13,443$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.44	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	3c	11,245$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$298.16	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf2a9…9234backed Yes	0c	11,160$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.16	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffcf…ceaabacked Yes	0c	10,950$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.95	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	10,010$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.01	136	0.7%1 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+635.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	2c	7,065$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.14	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	6,673$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.92	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5357…a8f8backed Yes	1c	6,143$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.93	144	13.2%19 W · 125 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	5,753$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.52	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	5,712$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.38	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1203…77ddbacked Yes	0c	5,270$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.54	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ea3…9439backed Yes	0c	5,200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	4,877$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.57	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	6c	4,526$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.2	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes	2c	3,633$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.34	112	8%9 W · 103 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-80%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	2c	3,516$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.5	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	3,361$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	2c	3,000$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	1c	2,793$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	2,682$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.03	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa44a…5d2dbacked Yes	4c	2,677$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.58	35	8.6%3 W · 32 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	2c	2,557$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.05	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	3c	2,443$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.53	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	1c	2,263$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.89	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x117f…4a20backed Yes	2c	2,240$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	68	8.8%6 W · 62 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+70.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5cf…0ef8backed Yes	6c	2,223$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.2	100	7%7 W · 93 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	2c	2,221$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	6c	2,200$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.53	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	5c	2,185$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.3	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	2,118$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.83	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cce…8c59backed Yes	1c	2,072$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	1,807$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.27	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6db…cdd2backed Yes	1c	1,529$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.96	46	4.3%2 W · 44 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-93.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	2c	1,499$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.48	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	5c	1,301$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.9	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7750…324dbacked Yes	2c	1,250$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	23	4.3%1 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2ac…fc08backed Yes	4c	1,222$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	2c	1,200$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.15	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06c5…b901backed Yes	2c	1,200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	67	31.3%21 W · 46 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64b4…055ebacked Yes	2c	1,094$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	1,027$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.55	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd3a…5e0bbacked Yes	2c	1,000$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf70f…1b9abacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	152	46.7%71 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x193a…35c0backed Yes	2c	1,000$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	6c	1,000$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	4c	999.99$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.98	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd88…76fcbacked Yes	1c	999.98$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	+2.6wins	+0.10per pick	9cpaid	+30.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	5c	967.65$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	5c	899.98$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.7	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x665b…73babacked Yes	2c	895.6$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x95bb…288dbacked Yes	4c	894.34$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.45	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0aa…6096backed Yes	4c	853.61$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.45	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	844.3$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.56	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0f3…42eabacked Yes	5c	843.23$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.37	68	14.7%10 W · 58 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6493…e79dbacked Yes	6c	813.05$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+1.2wins	+0.19per pick	14cpaid	+108.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked Yes	3c	811.73$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.5	108	38.9%42 W · 66 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-11%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	2c	808$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.21	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0a2d…6db9backed Yes	4c	767.54$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-1.6wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7fe4…e62abacked Yes	5c	765.41$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.4	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7257…fc40backed Yes	3c	748.68$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.46	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41a1…ac8ebacked Yes	4c	671.71$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd50b…e674backed Yes	5c	570.77$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	56	16.1%9 W · 47 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3b…6ba5backed Yes	4c	499.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Yes	5c	497.15$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac32…6e3bbacked Yes	3c	469.55$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.29	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+3.4wins	+0.07per pick	14cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x41ce…12fdbacked Yes	3c	457.16$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.21	135	17.8%24 W · 111 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8cd…32b2backed Yes	6c	450.49$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.68	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5544…fe9ebacked Yes	3c	440$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.32	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9edf…0f44backed Yes	6c	438.9$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	65	9.2%6 W · 59 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8c…c014backed Yes	3c	434.95$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb989…4934backed Yes	4c	411.29$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce68…f6b8backed Yes	3c	386.44$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.1	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d15…e453backed Yes	5c	382.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	32	6.3%2 W · 30 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf111…2a81backed Yes	6c	346.75$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	88	5.7%5 W · 83 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	3c	341.05$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.41	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b4e…d839backed Yes	4c	318.98$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.19	85	5.9%5 W · 80 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf52b…5bf3backed Yes	4c	300$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	76	7.9%6 W · 70 L	-3.5wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b67…e7b5backed Yes	4c	289.98$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.45	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	6c	229.64$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.88	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	6c	212.66$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x864d…64afbacked Yes	6c	209.44$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.58	122	19.7%24 W · 98 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x406c…ec46backed Yes	6c	204.17$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.42	100	13%13 W · 87 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3695…0c7cbacked Yes	5c	202.89$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+53.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes	6c	199.94$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	412	20.6%85 W · 327 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x341b…4a23backed Yes	6c	176.4$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.71	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+41%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event