Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9eb4b3079c91c3ec73424e4fb92caf53b7707b86edcd6888dad7defbe0539369

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 17, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,263,591
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $541,492

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,263,591 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x754b…a66ebacked Yes	0c	86,392$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.44	94	13.8%13 W · 81 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6914…3cbcbacked Yes	0c	73,120$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.12	16	0%0 W · 16 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes	0c	72,605$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.6	129	0.8%1 W · 128 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+675.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5357…a8f8backed Yes	0c	69,030$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.44	144	13.2%19 W · 125 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	68,507$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.51	136	0.7%1 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+635.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes	0c	37,520$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.52	78	0%0 W · 78 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9384…45e0backed Yes	0c	30,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x44b5…11a3backed Yes	0c	18,624$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.24	142	33.8%48 W · 94 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	17,499$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.52	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3454…333bbacked Yes	0c	17,240$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.31	72	16.7%12 W · 60 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	13,443$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.44	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	12,221$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.22	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0c87…98b1backed Yes	0c	10,100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	14cpaid	-62%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	0c	8,366$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.68	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	0c	7,806$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.31	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	1c	7,582$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.26	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	7,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	3,648$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.9	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0f3…f151backed Yes	0c	3,610$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.15	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	7cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7eef…d34ebacked Yes	1c	2,431$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.72	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-81%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	2c	2,322$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7257…fc40backed Yes	1c	2,301$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.91	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	1c	2,200$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.4	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	2,093$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.17	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	1c	2,055$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.01	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	2,049$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.81	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	2,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	1c	2,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	1,974$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.03	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5830…f928backed Yes	1c	1,890$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.65	166	11.4%19 W · 147 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	2c	1,660$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.97	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	2c	1,549$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.15	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fe4…e62abacked Yes	2c	1,445$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	1c	1,262$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.49	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes	1c	1,242$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.8	112	8%9 W · 103 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-80%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	2c	1,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.64	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	999.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.69	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	4c	895.61$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f2f…fa00backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked Yes	3c	361.43$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.85	108	38.9%42 W · 66 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-11%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event