Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d0f2be1446da04bf5a27842c27820728a4e73e8e7e21790997a59c874ddf9a9

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 16, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $992,551
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $572,295

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $992,551 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x754b…a66ebacked Yes	0c	34,718$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.72	94	13.8%13 W · 81 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes	1c	24,000$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272	59	5.1%3 W · 56 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2387…dd2abacked Yes	0c	22,000$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	20,664$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.33	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	20,376$416 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$416.12	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc357…6646backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	2c	18,021$313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312.55	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4406…c664backed Yes	1c	17,681$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.73	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+1.4wins	+0.10per pick	12cpaid	+30%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6914…3cbcbacked Yes	0c	17,595$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	16	0%0 W · 16 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	129	0.8%1 W · 128 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+675.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cc8…d668backed Yes	0c	13,535$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…f76abacked Yes	0c	13,000$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	+2.8wins	+0.07per pick	6cpaid	+31.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	12,962$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	12,890$289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289.29	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	12,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	136	0.7%1 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+635.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	11,786$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.7	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed7b…caabbacked Yes	1c	11,416$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ac6abacked Yes	0c	11,346$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.25	60	16.7%10 W · 50 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes	0c	11,000$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd0f6…82f7backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd9eb…e9b4backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-69%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5357…a8f8backed Yes	0c	9,610$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.55	144	13.2%19 W · 125 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cde…cc6cbacked Yes	0c	9,238$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	7,469$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.76	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	2c	7,067$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.54	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	2c	6,386$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x47e0…281ebacked Yes	2c	6,194$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+0.8wins	+0.06per pick	17cpaid	+102.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f09…03a8backed Yes	1c	6,090$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	10	0%0 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	1c	6,082$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.89	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa752…e19fbacked Yes	4c	5,390$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.5	39	30.8%12 W · 27 L	+4.7wins	+0.12per pick	19cpaid	+75.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	5,050$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.42	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	1c	4,892$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd00…e02fbacked Yes	2c	4,698$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.06	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes	1c	4,527$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.32	264	11.4%30 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	1c	4,285$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.72	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Yes	1c	4,239$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.47	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	4c	4,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes	3c	3,958$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-59.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9851…5113backed Yes	0c	3,777$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.33	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2246…dd6fbacked Yes	1c	3,652$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.07	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6233…8216backed Yes	2c	3,597$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.65	34	5.9%2 W · 32 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe343…23fdbacked Yes	0c	3,390$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.17	154	35.1%54 W · 100 L	+6.7wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	4c	3,110$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.51	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	3,094$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.62	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	3c	3,000$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.46	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	3c	2,998$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47e2…2f4bbacked Yes	1c	2,896$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.8	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	1c	2,613$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.62	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7587…81e2backed Yes	4c	2,598$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-53.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes	2c	2,552$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	227	18.5%42 W · 185 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20b…d71cbacked Yes	1c	2,507$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc82…6421backed Yes	1c	2,500$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes	3c	2,426$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.08	112	8%9 W · 103 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-80%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	2,416$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.1	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	1c	2,325$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.98	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f43…a080backed Yes	4c	2,206$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.5	44	27.3%12 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Yes	3c	2,136$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.58	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	2c	2,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	2,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	2c	2,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	1c	2,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.43	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd0f3…42eabacked Yes	2c	1,778$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.74	68	14.7%10 W · 58 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	1,777$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.1	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb30a…250ebacked Yes	1c	1,700$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	58	15.5%9 W · 49 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+98.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x687b…f8a7backed Yes	3c	1,609$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+1.3wins	+0.12per pick	7cpaid	+237.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12e6…ea33backed Yes	4c	1,571$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.91	25	36%9 W · 16 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	30cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	1,507$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.63	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x254f…cf10backed Yes	1c	1,500$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	30	23.3%7 W · 23 L	+2.1wins	+0.07per pick	16cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6a3…df40backed Yes	1c	1,415$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.65	116	24.1%28 W · 88 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fe4…e62abacked Yes	2c	1,400$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.4	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	1,400$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.59	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x957c…a8edbacked Yes	4c	1,392$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.01	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	18cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x542d…8999backed Yes	7c	1,379$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d16…4d02backed Yes	1c	1,345$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa43…d992backed Yes	1c	1,290$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.6	134	8.2%11 W · 123 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed Yes	3c	1,266$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.04	130	20%26 W · 104 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	1c	1,196$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.04	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb1…b2b3backed Yes	1c	1,165$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.65	51	2%1 W · 50 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+107.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	3c	1,158$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	3c	1,056$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.67	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d0f…bea9backed Yes	1c	1,001$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.61	278	11.9%33 W · 245 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+64.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	3c	1,000$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.31	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7bb8…89b9backed Yes	3c	999.98$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	93	32.3%30 W · 63 L	-5.5wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-45%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d67…b929backed Yes	2c	985$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.35	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25e1…6735backed Yes	5c	875.39$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes	3c	844.83$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.01	165	6.7%11 W · 154 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e83…2a73backed Yes	2c	833.81$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.01	35	11.4%4 W · 31 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	20cpaid	-62%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x117f…4a20backed Yes	2c	822.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	68	8.8%6 W · 62 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+70.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce68…f6b8backed Yes	4c	814.58$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.1	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18bf…3658backed Yes	3c	725.7$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	44	20.5%9 W · 35 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e83…7723backed Yes	7c	724.93$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	56	25%14 W · 42 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	4c	723.22$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.98	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	2c	715.87$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.78	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes	3c	713.62$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.72	121	6.6%8 W · 113 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xab0a…36b1backed Yes	3c	680$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.43	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7257…fc40backed Yes	2c	643.71$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.67	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1a3…2080backed Yes	7c	628.19$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.34	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes	2c	618.58$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	133	15.8%21 W · 112 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa44a…5d2dbacked Yes	3c	600$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.93	35	8.6%3 W · 32 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event