Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x634606b564832072616d792f8b6f0ba0dc36c5d32dad545ffd8aa90a1ce3e456

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 17, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,011,563
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $584,607

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,011,563 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 449 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	6c	40,055$2,326 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,325.73	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes	2c	27,485$620 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$620.05	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	+1.2wins	+0.06per pick	15cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	3c	24,100$603 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$603.14	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	4c	20,554$897 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$896.68	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	5c	19,202$967 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$967.24	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	6c	18,594$1,055 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,055.29	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	8c	13,254$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9523…56e0backed Yes	1c	11,500$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	59	8.5%5 W · 54 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a80…e9fbbacked Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	8c	10,576$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800.23	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	5c	9,805$521 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$521.5	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2511…5ae9backed Yes	12c	9,445$1,159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,159	65	13.8%9 W · 56 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa2e…f20ebacked Yes	4c	9,289$375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$374.71	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.12per pick	54cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	10c	9,090$905 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$904.8	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	6c	8,266$483 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$483.11	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	1c	7,836$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.59	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	13c	7,755$998 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$997.87	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes	5c	7,622$345 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$344.64	78	15.4%12 W · 66 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+57.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	16c	6,927$1,074 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,073.89	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	11c	6,762$769 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$768.78	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f4a…1a75backed Yes	3c	6,462$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.07	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	13c	6,000$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$749.98	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9cb…84a1backed Yes	17c	5,799$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes	3c	5,690$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.59	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Yes	2c	5,621$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.66	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	5c	5,562$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.48	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	6c	5,435$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$341.72	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	9c	5,275$491 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490.86	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcbd…5165backed Yes	1c	5,173$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.12	40	17.5%7 W · 33 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-20%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes	10c	5,152$514 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$514	112	8%9 W · 103 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-80%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	12c	5,131$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$599.91	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	11c	5,000$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$549.99	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	4c	5,000$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes	11c	4,899$533 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$532.92	86	22.1%19 W · 67 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	5c	4,740$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.05	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	11c	4,680$522 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$521.54	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes	14c	4,495$644 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$644.4	207	35.3%73 W · 134 L	+5.2wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x97e5…e2f4backed Yes	12c	4,311$507 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$507	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	1c	4,097$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.38	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c94…ffadbacked Yes	4c	4,087$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.88	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	9c	3,637$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312.3	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1bfc…98e0backed Yes	14c	3,600$504 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$504	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	7c	3,580$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.6	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80f4…c174backed Yes	6c	3,559$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	38cpaid	-63.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	9c	3,304$307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307.4	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63c5…6f61backed Yes	9c	3,104$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290	63	20.6%13 W · 50 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Yes	5c	3,079$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+48.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4573…c16bbacked Yes	12c	3,050$361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$361.44	44	20.5%9 W · 35 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	+65.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	4c	3,000$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	6c	3,000$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda6f…e619backed Yes	9c	3,000$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272.3	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	8c	2,973$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.05	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	13c	2,900$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380.5	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes	4c	2,848$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.88	23	4.3%1 W · 22 L	-2.6wins	-0.11per pick	16cpaid	-93.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	13c	2,787$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$358.03	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	10c	2,759$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.78	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	13c	2,636$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.25	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c96…1959backed Yes	13c	2,600$338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$338	52	28.8%15 W · 37 L	+3.1wins	+0.06per pick	23cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	9c	2,521$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x193a…35c0backed Yes	1c	2,500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5a0…fb10backed Yes	9c	2,480$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216	140	26.4%37 W · 103 L	+9.4wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes	10c	2,452$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.75	248	15.3%38 W · 210 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes	12c	2,441$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	227	18.5%42 W · 185 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa14d…2563backed Yes	7c	2,413$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.67	145	15.9%23 W · 122 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb260…715abacked Yes	4c	2,317$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.41	65	32.3%21 W · 44 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	5c	2,267$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.55	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes	12c	2,234$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.12	199	27.6%55 W · 144 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2733…ac38backed Yes	7c	2,215$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.06	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a80…729cbacked Yes	5c	2,121$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.83	54	11.1%6 W · 48 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	+38%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	2c	2,083$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.41	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes	4c	2,074$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.84	105	10.5%11 W · 94 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	4c	2,008$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.66	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	9c	2,006$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.31	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	10c	2,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	3c	2,000$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.5	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	6c	2,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes	6c	1,992$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.83	292	25%73 W · 219 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	1,991$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.64	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c75…fd50backed Yes	12c	1,926$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.12	156	31.4%49 W · 107 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1346…f96abacked Yes	4c	1,846$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.76	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b64…ebdebacked Yes	5c	1,828$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.8	78	25.6%20 W · 58 L	+3.5wins	+0.05per pick	21cpaid	+24.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes	2c	1,809$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.79	220	23.6%52 W · 168 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	6c	1,782$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.22	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d32…d12bbacked Yes	8c	1,740$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	46	17.4%8 W · 38 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x811e…265cbacked Yes	12c	1,700$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	+1.3wins	+0.07per pick	35cpaid	+55.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	6c	1,659$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.71	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe87…83d6backed Yes	13c	1,656$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	9c	1,608$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.75	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ff0…c634backed Yes	6c	1,591$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-85.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44b5…11a3backed Yes	8c	1,545$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.29	142	33.8%48 W · 94 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xedd1…08cbbacked Yes	13c	1,526$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	7c	1,519$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.93	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	7c	1,504$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.47	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes	9c	1,502$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.3	80	8.8%7 W · 73 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-41%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xddd8…e6f7backed Yes	2c	1,500$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	72	16.7%12 W · 60 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	7c	1,500$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbcc…2e56backed Yes	14c	1,490$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	114	17.5%20 W · 94 L	-6.2wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfef7…8367backed Yes	9c	1,459$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.17	54	18.5%10 W · 44 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	7c	1,370$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	2c	1,328$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.97	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event