Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8aeee073a6d1a4cf9e8e2875833506c27a636ba5a5af3074a03bb33b73bc475
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $471,319
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $139,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $471,319 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2935…96f7backed Yes | 0c | 22,222$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 64 | 1.6%1 W · 63 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2179…bedbbacked Yes | 0c | 20,136$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 78 | 0%0 W · 78 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 17,637$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 274 | 0.4%1 W · 273 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +257.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5357…a8f8backed Yes | 0c | 12,128$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 144 | 13.2%19 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6914…3cbcbacked Yes | 0c | 11,848$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 2c | 9,997$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.58 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54c0…a338backed Yes | 0c | 9,501$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 364 | 4.7%17 W · 347 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 1c | 8,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 5,337$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 1c | 5,177$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.73 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…feebbacked Yes | 0c | 5,100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cf…0ef8backed Yes | 3c | 4,625$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.6 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 4,081$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 4c | 4,000$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.82 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 1c | 3,411$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 146 | 8.2%12 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,106$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 112 | 8%9 W · 103 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -80%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x117f…4a20backed Yes | 2c | 3,005$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 8.8%6 W · 62 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…e977backed Yes | 2c | 2,875$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 590 | 9.2%54 W · 536 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 3c | 2,690$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.17 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 1c | 2,489$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a45…f628backed Yes | 4c | 2,200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.57 | 212 | 13.2%28 W · 184 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…5a39backed Yes | 1c | 2,076$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 144 | 11.1%16 W · 128 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2377…1481backed Yes | 4c | 2,037$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 172 | 8.7%15 W · 157 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 1c | 1,911$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,904$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 730 | 4.5%33 W · 697 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 3c | 1,783$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed Yes | 1c | 1,330$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 886 | 10.3%91 W · 795 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8585…cbf4backed Yes | 3c | 1,301$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 120 | 9.2%11 W · 109 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,182$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 4c | 1,048$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 398 | 6.8%27 W · 371 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…8733backed Yes | 4c | 999.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 571 | 8.2%47 W · 524 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c25…8d52backed Yes | 2c | 999.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 194 | 8.8%17 W · 177 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe4…e62abacked Yes | 4c | 917.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 3c | 830.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf22f…7714backed Yes | 2c | 815.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 5c | 655.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…d264backed Yes | 3c | 618.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +222%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 5c | 600.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50b…e674backed Yes | 4c | 538.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked Yes | 3c | 524.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 108 | 38.9%42 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…273dbacked Yes | 2c | 500.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 204 | 32.4%66 W · 138 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes | 4c | 476.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d25…749bbacked Yes | 5c | 435.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9edf…0f44backed Yes | 4c | 410.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 65 | 9.2%6 W · 59 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 5c | 395.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 325 | 29.2%95 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 355.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 175 | 6.9%12 W · 163 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 4c | 354.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 111 | 11.7%13 W · 98 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x564b…8348backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01da…07bebacked Yes | 5c | 255.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 143 | 20.3%29 W · 114 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.